November 2009 Archives

Tod Hunnisett

South: Crops holding up despite downpours

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I ended my last Crop Watch on the 1st of this month by saying I suspected we were in for payback for the dry weather we had been having.

A client of mine who is a regular contributor to FW told me this morning that 230mm so far this month has already become the wettest month in the 19 years he has been in residence at Flindt Towers. He's just very grateful (and so am I) that all his crops are drilled and all the important ones have had their residual herbicide.

Few people have turned a wheel in the last 3 weeks. Having said that, few crops are struggling and those that were earlier drilled (and therefore more important for spraying) have had their treatments anyway. Also the rain is falling onto well structured soils and not onto crops that have been "pugged in" so I don't think it will take too long without rain before a lot of these fields will travel anyway.

I follow with great interest the growth regulator debate on winter oilseed rape crops in the autumn. It always amuses me that we panic if a crop is going to be backwards and bung nitrogen on, and then panic if it's too forward and try and hold it back.
David Cairns

North:Fields now very much at capacity

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Although another wet and wild day is taking place we have not faired as badly as some parts of the country but field applications are very much at standstill and winter ploughing is impossible. One of the children at the rugby club said to me yesterday can you please do something about this weather and I thought how popular a man i would be if I could.

However the few fields I have managed to plodge my way through recently all look in reasonable shape and any cloddier areas are settling down with weathering the exception is a few winter barley headlands where the crop is sitting with "cold,wet feet" the very thing barley does not like and is going the statutory yellow colour but as I try keeping to reassure everyone when it gets some nitrogen and TLC in Spring it will come away.

Volunteer beans in wheat have been a problem this autumn and most we have manged to treat with Pixie which seems to have had good results however some of the later crops that have not been treated have a good population of beans in them and hoping that a few frosts and winter weather will slow them down. Although we are fortunate in this area not to have a massive grass weed burden it is unlikely that any ground that was due to get Atlantis or Broadway Star will receive this now until spring.


Marion Self

East: Time to shut the gate

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It's time to shut the gate.  Despite the recent unsettled and blowy weather most growers have all but completed their scheduled autumn sprays.

As temeratures fall and crop growth slows oppurtunities for any remaining autumn/winter Atlantis applications will be rare.  However, applications made in December and January have worked well after a spell of mild weather, i.e. after a long enough period to encourage plant growth (keep watching the lawn).

Aphid flight has only recently declined so outstanding straight aphid treatments on cereals or in rapeseed tank mixes may still be worthwhile.  For example later drilled wheat crops which were green before mid November should still be treated to control established colonies which could survive a mild winter.

In rapeseed cooling soil conditions are ideal for the completion of propyzamide (e.g. Kerb Flo) and carbetamide (e.g. Crawler) applications.  These residuals work best in moist soils which hold the active in the top few centimeters of soil where the weeds are  germinating. 


Andrew Riddell

North: Weather stops field work

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At this time of year the weather changes very quickly and so do the ground conditions. Opportunities for spraying have diminished rapidly but then we did have a fantastic spell earlier!

Seedbeds have been ideal and coupled with good soil temperatures cereal crops have made a good start with the bonus of very little slug damage. If an autumn herbicide hasn't been applied to wheat there are now products such as Othello that will control larger annual meadow grass when applied in the spring.

Some early sown winter barley is going rather yellow especially on headlands. Crops will have used up any available soil nitrogen and where roots have come across unfavourable soil conditions the results are clear for all to see.

Oilseed rape has continued to make reasonable growth and those sown in mid September will generally go into winter with sufficient top growth but more importantly they have decent roots.


 

James Boswell

South: Wet weather brings spraying to a standstill

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Winter Barley is well established now and looking well. Crops have had a pre-emergence spray and now need a Pyrethroid for BYDV control in a tank mix with a residual top up based on CTU ( depending on variety).

Wet weather diseases such as Rhyncosporium and net Blotch remain low but Mildew is rife on upper leaves and will need controlling with Torch Extra especially on lighter ground where rooting and drought tolerence can be adversely affected.

Wheat establishment has been fantastic and after a very dry beginning has now recovered very well. Blackgrass control as always has been a top priority, with no stale seedbed possible and very dry conditions for pre-emergent sprays, pressure was very high at crop emergence.


Will Foss

East: Time to concentrate on blackgrass herbicides

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Blackgrass control in wheat has got off to a bad start in many areas.  The worst situations are first wheats following oilseed rape where blackgrass control in the rape crop was incomplete. 

Subsequent management has been undermined by the weather - most notably the lack of rainfall to stimulate emergence in stale seedbeds followed by poor activity from residual herbicides applied to dry seedbeds. 

Although moisture has since activated the residuals it has also encouraged a rapid flush of blackgrass which has grown away from the herbicides at 1 to 3 leaves - in some cases at very high populations. 

Broad-leaved weeds have also survived most notably cranesbill.  Atlantis/Horus applications have been pending for the last 2 or 3 weeks but with little opportunity for application as the weather has been so wet and windy. 


Neil Donkin

South west: Blackgrass develops rapidly

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Rain and high winds have stopped nearly all field work though I do have a customer that managed to drill a field of wheat this week. So there are plenty of spraying jobs to be done once the weather calms down.

Blackgrass is developing rapidly and in wheat Atlantis seems now to be the only option, to be sprayed at the first opportunity. While temperatures stay high it should work well. An aphicide will be mixed in as BYDV is a serious risk in the mild weather.

Meadowgrass in both wheat and barley is awaiting treatment, mostly with chlortoluron mixtures. As time goes by without spraying, the rate of CTU will have to be increased to cope with bigger weeds. In wheat, at least we have the option of using Othello if it proves impossible to apply residuals.

Winter barley is very lush and there is risk of crop scorch from spraying herbicides, especially in mix with aphicides. Take care if frost is forecast and allow the crop to harden-off first.

 


Nick Brown

South: Making the most of a limited spraying window

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The predictive system told us that we should be seeing Phoma in rape crops by mid October. Given the dry conditions through most of August, September and October I must admit to being sceptical!

I have treated some crops for Phoma but the majority are still virtually free from the disease. Soil temperatures have now got to a level where applications of Kerb (propyzamide) and Crawler (carbetamide) can begin.

Being mindful of limited spraying opportunities between now and the New Year I shall add a fungicide in with these applications on crops that have not yet received one.

Most wheat and barley crops have eventually emerged. Some have not produced complete stands, but few merit re-drilling. Slug activity has largely been very low and consequently so has pellet use. In total I have probably used only 20% of the pellets that I did last year - I hope this is the case across the industry and metaldehyde will not found in significant amounts in water!

Pre-emergence treatments have been very variable this year. Crystal (pendimethalin + flufenacet) seems to have suffered particularly badly and in some cases broadleaved weeds that should have been easily controlled have come through it!

Mixtures including diflufenican have faired better and Liberator (flufenacet + diflufenican) has definitely had the edge over Crystal.  Defy (prosulfocarb) and diflufenican mixes seem to have worked better than most alternatives in dry conditions.
Some pre-emergence failures can be attributed to poor seed-beds, but many instances of poor control of grassweeds and broadleaved weeds cannot.

Frit fly has made an unwelcome appearance in some wheat crops. Most commonly it can be found following oats or in crops after grass where the interval between sward destruction and drilling was short. Other problem areas are crops following poor grassweed control last year.

Winter bean planting is complete and in stark contrast to last year all crops have been levelled post ploughing and have been sprayed with a herbicide. Early planted crops are emerging well which is two months before some crops struggled through the ground last year.  

 
 
Ruth East
With soil temperatures falling, rainfall due and lower day and night temperatures, application of propyzamide or carbetamide is now taking place. To enhance the activity of both products for blackgrass control a graminicide is also being be added.

Remember  that if a fop i.e  Fusilade Max had be used earlier in the season, then a dim  based product i.e Laser should be used, and vice versa. Also remember that the cut off point for Aramo (tepraloxydim) is end of November or if crop has nine true leaves, which most crops will have by now.

Where canopies are too thick then we will have to wait for some hard frosts or flocks of pigeons to open up to the canopies so that residuals may be applied to the soil surface. These products should not be applied in the rain or if heavy rainfall is immanent, as it goes against the VI guide lines. If we loose these products it will be the end of rape growing on most farms.

Cabbage stem flea beetle larvae can be found in the petioles of outer leaves of some plants, even though treated with the new seed treatments. This is due to the extended and irregular egg laying period caused by the warm, dry autumn. Most crops are large and dense enough not to warrant treatment. Any poorly developed crops should be monitored to see if the level of infestation warrants treatment.
 
Blackgrass control in cereals looks interesting. Where crops were treated at peri-emergence the blackgrass is exhibiting symptoms of death. Of all the pre-emergence treatments, Avadex (triallate) appears to be the most consistent. With no or very little blackgrass coming through, there has been very little pressure on Atlantis this autumn.


Dan Dines

West: Spray opportunities limited by weather

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The last two weeks have seen very few opportunites for spraying with wet and windy conditions dominating.  Thus far in November I have measured 5.5 inches of rain, so if you took the sprayer into some fields I dont think it would get out!

Occasional fields have seen persistent slug activity and have required more than one application of pellets.  However, in general slug problems have been significantly lower than last autumn.

Winter barley and some early-drilled wheats are now lush and soft so care needs to be taken when spraying, especially if frosts are forecast.  These crops are also carrying high levels of disease, particularly mildew. 

Significant black-grass emergence has been found in some fields.  The pre-em's have struggled this year in early-drilled crops given the dry conditions.  This is perhaps not suprising given that in some situations the pre-em was applied six weeks before the blackgrass started to emerge.

In these situations autumn application of Atlantis is planned, but the weather will dictate when it actually goes on.  If autumn conditions are not conducive to maximising the efficacy of the product then we will resort to a spring application.

Many rape crops are now very strong, arguably too strong, as they are up to the top of my wellies!  This should, however, help in the battle against pigeons!

Phoma was first seen in rape approximately three weeks ago, but it has not really developed very rapidly.  That said, trying to get a dry leaf to apply fungicides has been challenging, so where the opportunity has arisen crops have been sprayed.

Propyzamide or carbetamide applications have been planned for grassweed control, and we await suitable conditions for application.  Quite how we can successfully get these residual herbicides onto the soil through some of these very large crop canopies remains to be seen.

Thoughts are now turning to spring cropping decisions.  A balance needs to be struck between gross margin budgets and maintaining a sustainable rotation.  An area for healthy debate between agronomist and farmer!

 

 

David Martindale

North: Still time to apply Atlantis or Broadway Star

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Crops continue to thrive as the mild weather continues.  Many autumn spray programmes are near completion across most crops now. 

Soil temperatures are still high enough for any outstanding Atlantis (mesosulfuron-methyl + iodosulfuron-methyl sodium) or Broadway Star (pyroxsulam + florasulam) applications to winter wheat.  Where there has been good flushes of blackgrass, ryegrass or sterile brome it has provided a good opportunity to take them out whilst still small. 

Various herbicide options have been used for broadleaved weed control depending on the weed spectrum.  Cranesbill seems to be one of the fastest spreading broadleaved weeds in some areas, having a habit of popping up in new fields year on year.  Ironically volunteer winter beans look a better "crop" than they did as planted crops last year, so poor were the drilling conditions.

Late-drilled crops are emerging well apart from odd slug grazing to watch out for on the heavier parts of fields, so keep monitoring until the crop has reached the two to three true leaf stage.

Winter barley crops are looking forward and lush and as a result some fields are carrying high levels of mildew.  However, no fungicide is likely to be worthwhile at this stage as frosts should curb infection levels.  Soft growth is making some barley crops more sensitive to autumn herbicide mixtures.

Winter oats have established well with only meadowgrass and broadleaved weeds to target in the main.  Where blackgrass is present then the limited herbicide armoury means high levels of control will be difficult. 

Oilseed rape is looking arguably too well in many places with huge, thick canopies.  Although this is impressive to the eye and will discourage pigeons from landing, such crops are going to need careful management in the spring so that they do not end up being full of canopy and less end product.  Soil temperatures are now low enough for residuals such as propyzamide or carbetamide to be applied.

Patrick Stephenson

North: Temperature sufficient for oilseed rape residuals

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As if by magic the rain has done its job and crops are now complete. Slug damage is minimal and the amount of slug pellets applied will be considerably less than last year. We have progressed from treating affected areas with cost-effective metaldehyde in August and September to longer-lasting pellets in October. Further limited treatments will be with methiocarb-based products.

 

Slow or no emerging blackgrass is the main issue for autumn treatments. I appreciate the sage like advice that "treatments early give the best control of blackgrass" but what if there are no weeds visible?

 

Continuous wheat fields that have received Atlantis treatments in previous years show an interesting spectrum of grassweeds. In general, blackgrass is negligible but ryegrass has flourished along with oats and brome. What is then the best plan of attack? The answer I suppose is to pay your money and take your choice.


 

The loss of isoproturon is probably felt the most in the winter barley market. Missing pre-emergence products and a non chlortoluron-tolerant variety does set a nice challenge.

 

At long last soil temperatures have fallen sufficient to start spraying winter rapes with residual grassweed products. Needless to say, two inches of rain over the weekend makes travelling on the land more difficult. Phoma is noticeable by its absence but fungicide treatments will be included to cover light leaf spot and phoma.

 

Rape growth is lush to say the least having seen two deer in one rape field virtually hidden by leaves makes me ask the question "where are the pigeons when you need them"

 

Maize crops have been harvested and yields are in excess of 16 t/acre with wheat already been drilled into some fields. Fodder beet harvest has started although the market is limited at the moment with plenty of alternative cheap feeds available.


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Swaran Bachoo

South: Cereal herbicides and oilseed rape a priority

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Over the last seven days we have had a phenomenal amount of rain. Last week Tuesday there was 3.5cm leaving the heavier ground impassable.


On the plus side all the crops are now evenly emerged and making rapid growth in the mild weather. Slug numbers are diminishing on the treated fields. However, where no treatment has been carried out there are signs of severe grazing and these fields should be carefully monitored. Under the present wet conditions I find that pellets bases on methiocarb such as Rivet give the best control.


Winter wheat crops are at the two to three leaf stage and clean. Winter barley crops are at the three to four leaf stage and have signs of Net blotch and Rhynchosporium, particularly on varieties Flagon and Casatta.


The problem is particularly worse on the min tilled fields where the infection has been picked from the trash in the field. Usually it is not economic to spray barley in the autumn against disease as the cold frosty weather would normally control the diseases, but in the absence of frosts at present watch the disease progress.


The mild weather with no frosts so far means the crops are fairly soft. Don't use any complicated herbicide tank mixes, especially those containing insecticides for fear of crop scorch. Some slight scorch is already evident, even where fairly simple mixes have been used.


Remember that barley is more easily damaged than wheat and that some fields are carrying foliar disease. Where blackgrass has emerged and is at two to three leaf stage then Atlantis (mesosulfuron + iodosulfuron) should be planned in winter wheat. This is particularly important where no residual herbicide has been used.


Oilseed rape crops are growing very quickly and the biggest plants have eight to 10 leaves. Untreated crops are now showing symptoms of Phoma and it would be pertinent to consider an application of a fungicide.


As the crops are well advanced with GAI of nearly three it is worth considering a plant growth regulator fungicide based on metconazole or tebuconazole. The fungicides can be tank-mixed with aphicides to control turnip yellow virus as the seed dressings will be running out of steam in larger plants.


Look out for blackgrass in oilseed rape crops where the graminicides or earlier residuals may not have worked. Consider using Precis (propyzamide) once temperatures have dropped.

 

Bryce Rham
What a difference a year makes. Apart from about 200 acres of wheat to go in after fodder beet, everyone is drilled up. The initial 20mm of rain four weeks ago dried up quickly, but consecutive weekends of substantial rain and rainfall during the last week has finally wet soils enough to kick residuals into action.

The dry weather seems to have affected barley the least.  Crops emerged within seven days of drilling and are still growing very quickly, but protracted drilling range means I have barley from two leaves to four tillers. Bar a couple of hundred acres, all has been sprayed, primarily with chlorotoluron + flufenacet/pendimethalin. A few early crops got quite severe mildew but frosts from three weeks ago put this to rest.

Later-sown oilseed rape crops have now fully emerged. Nitrogen was applied to these soon after the first rainfall and they are now growing away well. Crops with sludge/poultry litter and slurry are too big and thick - they are probably at GAI 3 already.  Most were sown at 60 seeds/sq m and could have been dropped to 30.

Prothioconazole + tebuconazole have been applied in an attempt to carry out some canopy management whilst ensuring good control of phoma/light leaf spot - there is evidence of both albeit not at threshold levels. It is the end of October/first week November and ideal conditions to apply - it's too warm for Kerb as yet.

Due to very dry conditions early on I have the unusual scenario of wheat from one true leaf to four tillers in the same field. Growth of these crops is slow due to lost vigour whilst trying to cope with the dry conditions. Later sown crops are more even and growing well.

Virtually all crops have been sprayed. I have moved away from flufenacet-based products in the last few weeks and onto Othello (mesosulfuron + iodosulfuron + diflufenican). Most early-drilled crops irrespective of variety have mildew present but it is not getting any worse.

Blackgrass is emerging very quickly in a few wheat crops and will be sprayed with Atlantis/Horus (mesosulfuron + iodosulfuron) soon. I also have a few crops with bad brome which I will probably try with Broadway Star (pyroxsulam + florsulam) either this month or next. I'm guilty of not using any last season, primarily because so little spraying was done in the autumn and we had to control annual meadowgrass in the spring, but will probably use a lot more this season.

Brian Ross

East: Crops relish rain at last

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Finally decent amounts of rain are allowing crops to fully emerge and with the relatively warm sunny weather, grow away well.

Bare patches in oilseed rape have by and large filled in with a lot of new, small plants. After last year's experiences hopefully they will make it through the winter. I have seen a few myzus persicae in some crops so be aware of these as they can transmit the Turnip Yellow Virus.

Other pests seen, apart from slugs which have now come to the surface after the rain, include a few cabbage root aphid larvae on some roots of large rape plants, turnip sawfly larvae and some plants near hedgerows with clusters of mealy aphids. None of these are at threshold levels but nonetheless are interesting to find. I have also heard that a further generation of leaf miner flies have been seen.

A young trainee I have with me spotted the first leaf with phoma I have seen this year so if conditions remain mild vigilance will be needed. A 10% threshold trigger should be used if this is reached, especially on the smaller plants.

Pre-emergence herbicides applied to early-drilled crops are having mixed success at the moment. Some will need a little longer before any thoughts of follow up sprays are acted on. Rain has only just activated them and a I feel it will be a little longer before decisions will be made.

Blackgrass that is beyond two leaves and showing no symptoms will need to be addressed sooner rather than later with regard to Atlantis application. Beware of complicated tank mixes if applying to lush crops particularly in barley - a hardening off period should be observed before application.

Several bird cherry aphids have been seen in the last few days so untreated crops are at risk of barley yellow dwarf virus.

Marion Self
There is a green haze of optimism across the landscape. Excellent growing conditions have evened crop establishment and growers have been able to continue autumn work at pace. Many first wheats after sugar beet have been drilled into good seed-beds and have emerged well.

Slug activity has increased recently and as expected, this has been most pronounced in crops following rape and where seed-beds have been cloddy. Later-drilled, slower emerging crops have been hit in particular.

Propyzamide (e.g. Kerb Flo) and Carbetamide (e.g. Crawler) applications should be stalled until soils cool.  Propyzamide is more effective when applied in cool conditions as this improves its persistence. Also, weeds are more easily controlled when their growth is less active but not entirely shut down.

Firm seed-beds, high soil moisture content and recent frosts also improve the efficacy of these actives.  Where a visible phoma threshold has not yet occurred a latent infection will be developing within the plant.  In these cases a pragmatic approach to control is advised e.g. by mixing the fungicide with a scheduled propyzamide application for grassweed control.

Risk of barley yellow dwarf virus infection has been high this autumn.  All crops that have emerged so far should be protected by seed treatment or foliar insecticide. If conditions remain mild then early September-sown crops treated with Deter (now eight plus weeks post-emergence) should receive a foliar application of cypermethrin to continue protection until aphid migration ceases. Even if cold conditions occur, crops that emerged in late October/early November should still be treated to prevent build up of aphid colonies that may have already established within the crop.

Blackgrass is emerging and has been seen pushing between clods where pre-emergence herbicides where applied to dry, cloddy seed-beds.  Atlantis - autumn or spring application?  Apply Atlantis in the autumn where blackgrass and sterile brome are the main targets and blackgrass populations are "more difficult" to control, due to high populations or more resistant types.  Spring applications should be considered where a mixed population of blackgrass with wild oats and or other bromes and cleavers are likely. 

Autumn applications should be made at the one to three leaf stage of the blackgrass while the weed is still actively growing. Conditions must allow the spray to dry on the leaf. Avoid spraying later in the day when damp conditions may occur before the spray dries on the leaf.
Neil Potts

West: Volunteer beans removal challenge

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Crop Watch copySince my last report we have had a glorious spell of weather, allowing most growers to catch up with autumn planting. There are still some wheat crops to go in after combining maize, fodder beet and other late-harvested crops, but by and large planting is as far on as it could be.

Winter rape has grown incredibly well in the dry, mild spell we have had with canopies if anything too thick. This, however, could change fairly rapidly with some proper winter weather. At the moment I am not too concerned about high GAI's, particularly as most of the rape crops on my patch are low biomass varieties. In the last week I have seen the first phoma lesions. Crops will now start to get their autumn phoma fungicide, which will be flusilazole based.

Winter wheat crops are all over the place in terms of growth stage, ranging from just emerging to GS22. Volunteers from previous crops are proving to be more of a problem than usual due to the quick turnaround between crops. The worst offenders are volunteer beans and oats, both of which will require early removal as they are present in large and therefore competitive numbers.

Min-till ground is much worse than ploughed, but this is hardly surprising. A shortage of Pixie (the only remaining CMPP formulation approved for winter use in cereals) has lead to a change of tack in controlling volunteer beans. Low rates of clopyralid will be used. In the past I have found this to be an extremely effective herbicide for volunteer beans, giving more thorough control than CMPP at a similar cost.

Wheat and barley that hasn't received a pre-emergence herbicide will be walked in the next week or so to decide upon a post-em strategy. Product choice will depend largely on the target grassweed population and/or the variety's tolerance to CTU. Barley yellow dwarf virus control, where not dealt with on the seed dressing will take place in the same time frame.

I am receiving a few reports of slug damage to newly emerging wheat. This is mostly where the previous crop was oats or forage maize, with the latter being the worst affected situation. Growers should be watchful, particularly if the weather becomes colder and wetter. Wheat growth slows up and it remains vulnerable to slug damage for longer.
David Cairns

North: Autumn favourable for crop development

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This season most crops in the area could not have had it better. The weather allowed good establishment establish without any major pressure and some crops look more like they should in spring. November has arrived and brought wetter, colder weather which will lower soil temperatures and slow growth.

The favourable spell has allowed us to get up to date with herbicide applications for broadleaved weeds and meadow grass. Generally I have been pleased with results, although some appear to have been very slow acting, which is probably due to drier conditions.

Crops which had no insecticidal seed treatment have had an aphicide applied as winged aphids have been very apparent. However later-emerged crops and colder temperatures should reduce vulnerability. Most oilseed rape crops received an early herbicide for broadleaved weeds and seem to be working very well. Those that didn't will receive a propyzamide application when soil temperatures are low enough.

The most yield robbing disease of oilseed rape in this area is light leaf spot. Generally this requires a two-fungicide strategy for best control and autumn applications are being applied based around prothioconazole or flusilazole combinations and any remaining volunteer cereals are being taken out with a suitable graminicide.

As the autumn season is being put to bed thoughts are turning to spring cropping options. I think growers will be looking for supply contracts rather than planting crops optimistically and hoping for markets to develop.
Tod Hunnisett

South: Dry weather makes life easier

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Many years ago a tractor driver said to me, "It's a shame dry weather does any 'arm", which is quite true really as it certainly makes life easier to deal with.

Nearly all winter drilling has been completed, including winter beans, and quite a large chunk has already been sprayed and possibly put to bed for the winter. We have had enough rain for full germination but not enough to stop progress, which has been great news.

However, the rain has woken the slugs up. I have seen a few crops after winter rape where slug numbers have been very high but they have been eating volunteer rape in preference to the wheat. The problem is that soon the rape will be gone and that's when they'll start on the wheat. I'm advising growers to test bait and treat accordingly before the wheat gets badly damaged. Other than that I've seen very little damage.

Rain that fell after the dry period has stimulated a fresh germination of grassweeds, particularly in oilseed rape. Most non-ploughed rape needs two graminicides before the spring anyway, so mine will get one with a fungicide sometime soon. Fields with problem grassweeds have carbetamide or propyzamide programmes anyway, but I don't think it's yet cool enough to get the best out of these products.

I've not yet seen any significant herbicide damage in sprayed cereals despite the early drilling and so-called "soft" crops. We had a couple of frosts about a week ago so that should reduce the risk even further.

I do worry that we're in for some payback for the dry autumn as nature has a peculiar way of balancing itself out. I hope it doesn't mean months of deluge. As I quoted earlier, it's a shame dry weather does any 'arm.