David's Digest

I am as perplexed as most dairy farmers must be by the announcement that Cadbury's have been forced to raise prices because of a 20% increase in milk prices.

OK, there may have been some supply problems during the recent floods in the West Midlands but only for a few days surely. In any case there will not have been time for that to affect supplies of dried milk powder which the company claims to use in its products.

Nor do I know of many milk producers who would admit to a 20% rise in returns last year. The modest increases in some producer prices are so recent as to be irrelevant to Cadbury's 34% fall in profits last year.

So, what's the real story? Has milk production dropped so much because of low returns that powdered milk is now in short supply? Or is Cadbury's simply seeking a convenient excuse for its poor performance and product recall problems by blaming dairy farmers? I think we should be told.

Don't get me wrong. For those, thankfully few, people currently involved in the Surrey Foot & Mouth outbreak the situation is clearly devastating. For the rest of the UK cloven hoofed livestock industry it is at present a considerable inconvenience. But if, as seems possible, animal movement is allowed again in a few days, it may not turn into the same kind of disaster as that in 2001.

That is not the opinion you might reach from the popular media, of course. It has featured pictures of the funeral pires of six years ago alongside big black headlines. We should remember, however, that with Parliament in recess, August is a slow month for news and this has come as a gift to under-employed reporters.

The other notable feature of the last few days is the personal involvement of the Prime Minister. This is commendable and his willingness to be interviewed on the subject every day might be interpreted as encouraging. But if I were cynical I might also wonder if maintaining such a high profile about an industry in which he has previously displayed little interest might be opportunist in that it keeps him in the news and David Cameron on the sidelines.

Regarding the source of the infection - it is, in my view, too soon to point the accusing finger. Yes, the strain of the virus is the same as that in use at Pirbright and, circumstantially, this leads to suspicion. But Guildford is not very far from Gatwick Airport and the possibility that it was imported via that route should surely not yet be discounted.

Please understand, I am not suggesting this F&M outbreak is of no consequence. Clearly it is and potentially it could become worse. Let's hope and pray it doesn't. Meanwhile at least let's treat it with reasoned perspective.

It seems unlikely we shall ever know exactly how F&M got from Pirbright to the infected farms. The H&S Executive has produced a vague enough report to enable individuals to escape blame although it does seem virtually certain that Pirbright was the source.

The main priority now must be to ensure there is no further spread. Todays Telegraph suggests another 20 farms are under suspicion but whether this is realistic or more media hype I can't say. The apparently faultless record of the unfortunate victims of the disease, unlike the 2001 scenario, has surely limited the likelihood of many more cases. But not all the facts may yet be in the public domain.

If, on the other hand, the outbreak is perceived to be under control, it is a matter or urgency that most of the UK is released from movement restrictions. Scotland has already unilaterally released its farmers from restrictions and apart from the far south east of England the same should apply to the rest of the country. If there are good reasons why this should not happen we should be told.

For the disruption and economic damage that would occur by extending the period of nationwide movement restriction would far outweigh the cost of the outbreak itself. To avoid a catastrophe becoming an industry disaster DEFRA must act now. If it does not, it had better provide some pretty convincing reasons.

According to the Bank of England, annual food inflation hit 6% in April. Waterlogged crops and Foot & Mouth disease in this country together with extreme weather conditions in other parts of the world from which we could otherwise import supplies could push up prices further, it warned.

Might I and others be forgiven for retorting "We told you so"?

Indeed I am reminded of a comment made by A G (Arthur) Street on the long running BBC radio programme Any Questions. It was in the era of the ration book in the 1950's when food production was perceived as more important than it is now. Any Questions often had a farmer panelist in those days.

On the evening in question a member of the audience complained about the rising cost of potatoes. To which Arthur Street replied that farmers who grew potatoes had spent many months ploughing their fields, planting the seed potatoes, nurturing the plants, protecting them from blight, then lifting, grading and bagging the tubers before delivering them to greengrocers.

It hasn't been a good year for potatoes, he continued, so there aren't as many to go round and the price has increased. Furthermore, the farmers who grew them need that extra money to make a living from putting food on your table. "So I'm glad the price you pay for potatoes has increased," he concluded. Interestingly, the audience, presumable mainly made up of consumers, applauded him.

It wouldn't be politically correct to say such things these day's so I had better not repeat it.

I've never been grouse shooting, although I have met plenty of people who've enjoyed it for many years. They tell me that the moors are full of monied City types rather than proper countrymen these days. On the one hand this provides an opportunity for them to contribute some of their huge bunuses to the rural economy. On the other, their frequent demands for big bags to justify expenditure on pairs of Purdy's, new tweed suits and so on brings completely the wrong attitude to the shooting field.

OK, I should probably not include all of the new breed of country sportsman within that bracket. Some are countrymen first and bankers or stockbrokers second and should know how to behave. But there is a significant element among todays "guns" that bring their City competitiveness with them on shoot days and seek only to kill as many birds as possible.

To me, that is not what shooting should be about. My main enjoyment during the handful of days each season that I go shooting pheasant and partridge is the joy of walking across beautiful countryside, the thrill of seeing birds fly, the companionship with other like minded people who are more concerned with one another's company than with the size of the bag.

I really hope this message is picked up and adopted by those who boast of hundreds of birds shot in a day. For their excesses are what puts the enjoyment of more modest shooting men at risk. The anti's are only too pleased to point the finger at big bags, some of which they claim are buried, and use them in their campaign to stop shooting. A more moderate approach, combined with a determination that what is shot is eaten, might help undermine their activities and preserve genuine pleasure in a rural activity for the majority.

A 228 page report, commissioned by the government and out today, warns that illegal fly tipping will almost double if "pay as you throw" charges for rubbish collection or dumping at official sites are introduced.

What a surprise! I could have told them that - indeed I did tell them that - in blogs and FW articles several months ago when the charging scheme was first floated. I wonder how many hundreds of thousands of pounds of tax payers money have been paid to the environmental consultants, Eunomia, to confirm what was already blindingly obvious.

For what it's worth, Eunomia said the charges would lead to a huge increase in the amount of refuse being dumped in lay-bys, neighbours bins and the countryside and that this would add £39mill to the national cost of cleaning it up. Eunomia also confirmed that there was a doubling of flytipping between 2004/5 and 2005/6.

Ministers appear to labour under the illusion that everyone in this country cares and has a concience about such matters and will obey the law and pay whatever is charged when they say so. Sorry, but a substantial minority do not. Yet more proof, I'm afraid , that politicians and civil servants don't live in the real world in which many people will try to get away without paying their debt to society if they think they can. And in most cases they do.

Better policing and more prosecutions might help a little. But free collection from the roadside (paid for from public funds in lieu of saving clear-up costs like those suggested above) is the only way such anti-social individuals might change their ways. As todays report implies, "fining" them would simply make matters worse. The government must think again.

The Dann family of North Tuddenham in central Norfolk, Geoffrey senior, his son Simon and his wife and family of three, weren't desperate (get it?). But they did realise they must either expand their acreage or generate more income if they were to keep all the elements of their family farm together.

Lack of availability and rising values made the land option pretty unlikely. So they looked around for retail opportunities. A few years ago they heard of a Dutch franchise company that was wanting to extend its activities into Britain. They went to Holland, liked what they saw, did a deal, and the rest is history.

Three years later, last Thursday to be precise, after jumping through seemingly endless planning hoops and eventually building an icecream manufacturing plant along side the milking parlour and inside a traditional Norfolk barn, they were ready for the official launch of their new business. NFU President, Peter Kendall, did the honours and about a hundred friends, neighbours (including me) and potential customers gathered in the barn for the occasion.

It was a great evening in front of a big crowd. There had been just enough rain to stop combines working and virtually everyone invited turned up. We all tasted the many flavours, mostly derived from Norfolk produce, and pronounced them very good. Fourteen farm shops in the area beat us to it and are already featuring Pound Farm icecream in their offer.

I'm not really a cat person. I prefer dogs. But reading of Tim's fixation with his new cat (Field Day) reminded me of a story told by the titled lady who was President of Norfolk YFC's in the 1960's. Filling in at a harvest supper for a speaker who had failed to turn up she told the following tale.

There was a beautiful and sophisticated white lady cat who one day met her friend, an equally attractive and well bred brown lady cat. "Oh darling" she said to the brown cat "I did so envy you last night, out on the tiles with that gorgeous ginger Tom". To which the brown cat replied " Darling, I'm afraid your envy is misplaced. He was talking about his operation all night."

I'm kicking myself for being so smug a couple of weeks ago. I really should know better. Back then I boasted about harvest progress and said we had combined all that was fit. I was relaxed about the two thirds of our wheat and all of our spring beans still to be gathered.

Well, I'm not so relaxed now. Not a wheel has turned on this farm for two weeks and the last few days have been more like November than August. Wheats that were bright and standing now look grey and are leaning. Beans that had green stalks two weeks ago are now black and ready to combine.

Meanwhile I have been tipping out inches of rain from my measuring pot each morning and the wind last night must have shelled out some of the wheat that is now rotten ripe.

The forecast is a bit better for the weekend but at present rain is driving against the office window. I heard today that wheat is up to £150/t for November. But high prices aren't much good if the stuff is still out on the field.

A married couple called Mills from South Wales are reported to have spent £2000 on vets bills to treat a Rhode Island Red hen that has ended up with one leg. Apparently the hen got its leg caught in some wire netting, failed to respond to treatment so had to have the leg amputated and was then diagnosed with depression. Its owners have foregone holidays and been living frugally ever since to pay for it all.

"Its lovely to see the smile back on her beak," said Mrs Mills, "and she is now laying eggs again."

I too am an animal lover although I have never been that close to a chicken. Indeed my first thought on hearing the story was that those eggs were rather expensive once the vets bills were accounted for. My second thought was that the vet in question must have done pretty well out of the deal.

I then remembered an incident in our farmyard many years ago when I was a boy. A chicken dealer named Mr Reed was in the habit of calling regularly to collect cull hens from the deep litter unit and taking them away in crates on his car trailer. One day when he was there my father pointed to a hen walking slowly and stiffly around the yard and was clearly unwell. "You're an expert on poultry, Mr Reed," my father said, "what do you reckon is wrong with that hen?"

Mr Reed walked slowly round the hen. She had a wry neck, a pale comb, one wing hanging down and could hardly move and said, "Well, Robert, as near as I can say she's deep in thought". And with that he picked her up, wrung her neck and stuffed her into a crate on his trailer.

Would I be accused of being callous if I admitted I would have done the same with the one in South Wales?

As UK dairy companies belatedly begin to raise ex-farm prices rather than risk milk production melt-down the talk turns to the need for further consolidation in the dairy industry in order to provide a more solid basis for investment and greater leverage against the big retailers.

In other words we are likely to see a significant reduction in the number of companies, perhaps down to just a handful for the entire UK. If this happens, some commentators say, it would allow milk prices paid to dairy farmers to increase still further.

Suddenly, the things some of us have been saying about the need for better prices in order to provide greater food security for UK consumers are coming to pass. Shortages always drive markets in the end. It's happening with arable crops as well because of a world shortfall between production and demand.

But perishable, short-shelf-life milk has always been a special, relatively local, case. And industry calls for a more consolidated processing and distribution sector have a familiar ring. Remember the Milk Marketing Boards in each country of the UK? Make's you wonder why they were kicked out in the first place, doesn't it?

While most of the population sit on sandy beaches and dangle their toes in azure seas, here or abroad, we are harvesting wheat again. I'm not complaining. I'm just glad we've been able to get at it after all the rain.

Actually, our shared combine was out on Saturday gathering for the most enthusiastic member of our informal group. The moisture was 33% I understand. Sunday was a bit better. By the afternoon wheat had dried down to 24%. Now its our turn and grain is coming into the barn at a slightly more manageable 20%.

Its not pretty. Virtually every grain has shot so both weight and quality will be pretty ordinary. But we're keeping it separate from stuff gathered earlier in August, once its been through the drier, in the hope that it will have a good enough spec to be accepted against the contracts made many months ago at prices much lower than those ruling now. With luck, the unsold heap harvested in good conditions might be worth a premium.

That, anyway is the hope. Must dash now. Got to take my turn running the drier.

Surprisingly, I haven't heard the words in my headline used to describe the current situation in our industry. But if you include pigs and poultry under "horn" I think you will agree, it sums it up perfectly.

The phrase, or its opposite - Up Horn, Down Corn - dates back, of course, to the days before farming was supported by governments in the interests of guaranteed food supplies and consumer price stability. It reflects the fact that free markets always swing from surplus to shortage and back again and that when arable is profitable livestock is not and vice versa.

Whether that was what world governments and their economic advisers intended when they adopted the systems of free trade and globalisation is not clear. Whether they thought far enough ahead to a time like the present, when demand for arable commodities for food and energy is soaring, is even more uncertain. All they said was - there may be some price volatility.

Whatever the truth of the matter we have arrived at a point in the worlds economic cycle in which shortages are now a reality and, according to an Icelandic academic speaking at a conference today, the world faces the need to produce as much food in the next fifty years as it did in the previous 10,000.

Meanwhile Britain's policies have led to a significant reduction in our food self sufficiency. Do we all agree that those elected to govern us have got it wrong? Do they realise it yet? How will they respond?