This month, our Arable Insights farmers are considering all the options as they ponder the future of farming.

With government support for both food production and nature recovery paused in England, there’s a temptation to retreat until there’s more clarity about the industry’s direction.

For most, having the foresight to already be participating in agri-environment schemes means crunch time is a couple of years away, when those agreements come to an end.

The general feeling is that there will be very little on offer after that.

See also: How sheep, variety blends and nutrition can help manage disease

North

Philip Metcalfe, Caldwell

Phil Metcalfe says the funding gap will hit his business hard in 2027, as both an existing Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI) agreement and a Countryside Stewardship (CS) scheme end at the same time.

While he believes SFI will open again, he expects it will look quite different to the current offer due to a reduced budget and less government commitment.

His focus on the farm for the past few years has been sustainability, with efforts being made to improve soil health and deliver for the environment.

“We haven’t taken either extreme when it comes to being fully regenerative or pushing hard for production, and that won’t change,” says Phil.

“Like many others, I want to leave the farm in better condition for the next generation – my father did his bit for 50 years, now I’m trying to do mine.”

With that in mind, he is going ahead with a tree-planting project on five acres of permanent pasture, which has received Forestry Commission backing and should become another income stream.

“When we investigated it, the site qualified for every payment uplift as it is along a watercourse and has a footpath through it.”

He points out that when the planting is completed, he will have an asset that will be sequestering carbon.

“It isn’t going to cost me money to do it so I hope to start planting them next winter.”

He has no current involvement in any private funding initiatives, which he sees as dependent on location and farm assets.

“Northumbrian Water approached us 18 months ago, but nothing has come from that, and I haven’t looked into carbon credits yet.”

Premium markets are interesting and will evolve, predicts Phil.

“They aren’t available to everyone and although we have a big population that needs feeding, there’s no getting away from the fact that most people want to buy their food as cost-effectively as possible.”

East Midlands

Colin Chappell, Brigg

Colin Chappell is remaining positive about the future of farming, having already taken steps to structure the family business for no subsidies or environmental payments.

He admits his son Jack’s recent decision to join him on the farm has given him the motivation to continue, having had a brutal year in 2024 when flooding meant 80% of the farm was uncropped in April.

“Fresh blood will bring in new thinking that we need as an industry,” he says.

“Now that I know the next generation wants to farm, it’s an easy choice to keep going. I think the future is worrying my father more than me.”

As climate change tightens its grip, Colin is only too aware of the risks involved with farming in a river valley.

“Without some sort of public funding, we wouldn’t get through another year without any income from crops,” he points out.

“Our future depends as much on the maintenance of the river, as it does our own activities and decisions.”

With a Mid Tier CS agreement that has four years left to run and two current SFI agreements with two to three years remaining, Colin describes himself as being in a very fortunate position.

“After then, it could be a different story. We are rapidly learning that we can’t rely on the government for funding.”

As a result, he is exploring the potential for biodiversity net gain on an 8ha site and is continuing to take advantage of premium-earning potential, with both milling wheat and marrowfat peas being grown.

Renewable energy is also a feature of the farm, with miscanthus being grown on poorer land and both maize and barley going to a local anaerobic digestion plant.

East Anglia

Jo Franklin, Westmill

In Hertfordshire, Jo Franklin has concluded that she and her partner Rob will have to relocate their business in three years, when their existing CS and SFI schemes come to an end.

Having done everything that has been asked of them in making the business more sustainable, she is not sure what else they could do and where any future profit will come from.

“We know our yields are as good as others and our costs are much lower, but there’s a danger we will just be slogging away all the hours just to pay our rents,” she says.

While the sheep enterprise is performing well, its labour requirement is higher where electric fencing is required, so the suspension of fencing grants makes the future of that less certain, she points out.

Set up as a food-producing business and working with 25 landlords – all of which are expected to demand rent increases to cover Basic Payment Scheme (BPS) losses – Jo doesn’t see a future for their current business model.

Future government funding will be negligible or become a postcode lottery, she believes.

“We have been proactive in looking at private schemes and have done some initiatives with the Local Enterprise Network Scheme [Lens] and our local water company.

“Unfortunately, these tend to be on a year-by-year basis, so they can’t be relied on. Nestle is a big funder within Lens, but only a few farmers benefit and the geographical catchment is small.”

Carbon has also been investigated and they signed up with Agreena to generate carbon credits.

However, they are still waiting for the payments they are owed from the past two years, despite having met the terms.

Jo is also familiar with premium markets, having grown milling wheat and borage.

“Again, they come and go. We know they can be a gamble – as soon as a good opportunity comes along, it tends to be overdone and premiums drop.”

Wales

Richard Anthony, Bridgend

Welsh farmers are watching what’s been happening in England to get an insight into what they can expect as direct payments are removed, reports Richard Anthony.

While the farm is still receiving its BPS this year, phasing will begin in 2026 when it scales back to 80%, followed by 60% in 2027.

“After that, we’ve still got no idea what will happen. You might as well stick a finger in the air – it’s anyone’s guess.”

Investment decisions are being hampered by the uncertainty, he continues.

“Some of the farm is tenanted so there are discussions going on with our landlords, but without a clear sense of direction it’s impossible to formalise these.”

A trip to New Zealand in January gave him some hope and a glimpse into the future, with the farms he visited all saying they were better off without support payments.

With that in mind, he believes productive farms should continue, combining activities with nature recovery work.

“There’s no doubt in my mind that the two go hand-in-hand. We’ve proved it on this farm, and we have the figures to show what can be achieved.”

Expecting that the industry will see much more change in the next few years, Richard makes every effort to engage with the Welsh government and is undertaking cover crop trials on its behalf.

“Private funding isn’t on offer in this part of Wales. Welsh Water doesn’t want to know.”

His son, who works with him in the business, is keen to push on. “Just like many others, we’re not doing it for ourselves, but for the next generation.”

South Midlands

Charles Paynter, Yielden

Any future environmental schemes for farms will be scaled back and limited, believes Charles, who sees recent events as the beginning of the end of supported agriculture.

“There was an element of panic in what the government did back in October and some of their decisions weren’t thought through properly, but it showed us that they are prepared to be ruthless,” he says.

He currently has one-third of his land out of production, having used the SFI to introduce legume fallows – both to improve soil health and tackle blackgrass.

“I want to farm as best as I can,” says Charles. “We’ve seen significant increases in soil organic matter since we changed the way we do things and the blackgrass burden is being addressed.

“We are also integrating cover crops. Put together, this approach reduces our reliance on inputs and makes the business more resilient – we now have a more healthy, sustainable farming system.”

Farming can stack up without subsidies, he believes, but points out it will mean higher food prices.

At the same time, he highlights a strong link between human health and food consumption, which he sees as an opportunity for farming.

“There will be a shakeout of older farmers, which means that opportunities will open up for others and a new, younger generation will come in,” predicts Charles.

“On this farm, we are already making more esoteric decisions as we are coming to the end of our active farming career.”

Farming just to cover the overheads doesn’t make sense, he adds. “It becomes a habit which is hard to break.

“There’s no doubt some will just raise the drawbridge and hope things improve.”  

South West

John Farrington, Wiveliscombe

“Standing on our own two feet” is how John sees the future, with farming receiving little or no government support and any new schemes that come forward being far less inviting than farmers are used to.

“Everyone is going to be belt-tightening, not just farmers,” he says. “That means private funding opportunities are likely to be very targeted and specific too.”

He sees capped areas and financial limits being part of the mix in any new version of SFI, with field-scale actions being scrapped and a focus on margins and field corners.

As a result, John is pleased that he has maintained a flexible farm system which is able to react to political and financial changes.

“We aren’t either fully regenerative or fully intensive,” he says. “The livestock side is good at the moment, the arable less so.”

Given the headwinds, he is in the middle of doing some cost analysis and considering how to utilise all the farm’s assets.

“It’s an exercise to cut out costs where we can and ensure we are making the best use of what we’ve got on the farm.”

Having had a large capital grant approved before they were suspended, infrastructure in the form of fencing and water for livestock and some farm tracks is scheduled.

“That will help with productivity,” says John. “We are planning to do it in tranches, so that it can be managed.”

Private funding in the form of a Wessex Water scheme is in place, to support herbal leys and zero input grassland.

Otherwise, outside interest in phosphate, offsetting hasn’t come to anything yet.     

Having grown some bi-crops on the farm last year, John is interested in the Wildfarmed concept and hopes to try an area out.

“Direct sales aren’t really an option for us, so perhaps that’s a good way to access premium markets.”

Scotland

Doug Christie, Leven

Up in Scotland, Doug considers himself fortunate to still be receiving direct payments, and points out they have allowed him to change his farm system for the better.

He also adds that he runs a low-cost system, with older farm machinery and limited borrowings, so he has some flexibility in deciding which direction to take from here.

“I could go either way,” he says. “My efforts have been focused on keeping the land in good condition, so if cereal prices suddenly rise I could capitalise on that.”

In the meantime, his organic beef enterprise is performing well.

“The worry is that slaughterhouses need critical mass and throughput, but as cattle numbers are on the decline there could be closures.”

Direct payments are set to continue until 2028 in Scotland. After that, Doug expects regenerative practices will be encouraged and he had watched SFI taking shape with interest.

“Looking at it from a distance, it seemed a sensible approach providing it is not too complicated or bureaucratic. If our support was suddenly pulled, I may have to ramp up production if the figures stack up.”

He is uneasy about private funding in the form of companies buying reduced emissions.

“I wouldn’t want to be reliant on one big company for income just because they have Scope 3 commitments.”

Doug admits the Budget did make him wonder why he had spent so much time and effort on the farming business.

“You have to question whether there’s any reason to convert to a regenerative system now. Without a premium or public funding, it would just make you uncompetitive.”

South East

Barney Tremaine, Midhurst

Working for a long-term, multi-generational business means Barney is focusing on improving efficiency and production for the time being, while keeping costs under control.

“We’re not ploughing to the hedge yet,” he says. “That just isn’t the direction of travel that the estate owner wants to take.”

Knowing BPS was being phased out, he had already focused on agri-environment schemes on the less productive land – with a Higher Tier CS scheme and an SFI 23 agreement in place.

“I had also submitted an SFI 24 application in time, but we still haven’t heard whether it has been approved.”

Barney’s confidence in the Rural Payments Agency is at an all-time low. “We are still owed our last instalment of SFI payment from February. It’s very frustrating.”  

Biodiversity net gain has been investigated as the estate is in the South Downs National Park and has some rare river meadows.

However, as two local housing developments have been able to provide the necessary biodiversity uplift on site, the opportunity may not materialise.

“We’ve also looked at biodiversity credits and the carbon market, but they haven’t really developed as we thought they might,” reports Barney.

Diversification isn’t an option for the farm, as the estate is already involved in other projects. “I’m here to run the farm, not to diversify.”

Otherwise, the arable area has been reduced to 400ha, to derisk it from the effects of weather, with both the dairy and the beef enterprises being pushed.

“We’re now producing more home-grown feed, more herbage seed, growing maize and producing cereals for the cows.”

Barney stresses that the government needs to recognise there’s a limit to how quickly a farm business can change direction.

“A good example is our Waygu beef, which is based on a 24-month rearing system – stability is so important for businesses.”