WARM, muggy weather interspersed with heavy showers is leaving grain traders nervous about the quality of vulnerable milling wheats, particularly in the eastern counties.

Wheat is turning blacker by the day in Shropshire, says Harper Adam University College’s Peter Kettlewell.

“It‘s looking like our long range forecast of below average quality for this season is coming true.”

Crops damaged by orange wheat blossom midge are most likely to have low Hagbergs, he says.

“The larvae puncture the grain surface making it easier for grain to get in. Where there was lots of blossom midge damage it’s almost certain to sprout because it’s so prone to the wet.”

Fortunately it wasn’t too cold during July so pre-maturity alpha amylase didn’t accumulate in grain, which can cause Hagbergs to fall even where there’s no sprouting, he says.

“And if it wasn’t extremely hot in July either, which would have encouraged shorter dormancy and sprouting.”

That should mean varieties with strong innate dormancy, such as Malacca, are holding onto Hagbergs quite well, he suggests.

In the south, Hants Grain’s Mike Clay is more optimistic.

“Before the rain growers were struggling to find anything to cut, so crops [around here] weren’t over fit. I’d like to think that they’re going to be alright for a few days yet.”

But for any crops that were fit it won’t be long before they’re going to lose quality.

“It’s classic Hagberg weather.”

Testing grain for Hagberg before harvesting could help prioritise fields correctly, suggests Dr Kettlewell.

“It’s the only way to tell whether Hagbergs have held up, unless it’s sprouted, when you know it will already be useless for milling.”

NIAB at Cambridge offers Hagberg Falling Number tests for £13.50/sample and requires 500g of grain.