Farmer Focus: Arable outlook as bleak as 10 years ago

After a nice dry spell over Christmas and New Year, we have had nonstop rain for the past couple of weeks. It’s a chance to plan for the year ahead.

The outlook for 2026 is unfortunately really bleak, with costs up and grain prices stuck to the floor.

So, in an attempt to gain some perspective, I’ve decided to follow the New Year’s “2016” social media trend.

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About the author

Peadar Whyte

Peadar Whyte farms 1,600ha of arable land across County Dublin, Meath, Kildare and Louth in north-east Ireland, as part of a multi-generational family farm, Whyte Brothers. The farm was established by Peader’s grandfather, Peter Whyte, and later expanded in partnership with Peter’s seven sons – including Peadar’s father, Eddie – and seven of their sons (Peadar’s cousins). Peadar grows wheat, barley, oats, oilseed rape, beans, potatoes and a variety of forage and cover crops. The wider farm operation also finishes 500 beef cattle annually.

Read more articles by Peadar Whyte

People, for whatever reason, have been posting photographs from 10 years ago and comparing them with today.

It’s easy to forget how much things change over 10 years and, regrettably, how much they stay the same.

Let me begin by comparing some of the costs from 2016 to now.

I am basing all my costs on a winter wheat crop in euros/ha. Unsurprisingly, everything is a lot more expensive today.

To begin, seed cost was €75/ha (£65/ha) and is now €130/ha (£113/ha).

The total spray bill for fungicide, herbicide, insecticide and plant growth regulators was €280/ha (£243/ha) in 2016 and is now €377/ha (£328/ha).

Fertiliser was €333/ha (£290/ha) in 2016 and is now €500/ha (£435/ha).

Also in 2016, we were the proud new owners of a New Holland T8330.

This tractor is still in excellent condition, but if we were to trade it in for a similar new tractor today, the cost would be more than double what we paid to upgrade back then.

Land rent is another major inflator, going from about €400/ha (£348/ha) in 2016 to more than €600/ha (£522/ha) today.

With everything that has happened, it is easy to forget that in 2016 things were almost as bad as they are today.

Green feed wheat was a miserable €135/t (£117/t) in the 2016 harvest.

Comparing that with today, and I can only go off 2025 as it’s too early to say what will happen in 2026 to grain prices (although there are no positive signs as yet), green feed wheat was €190/t (£165/t).

I suppose on reflection, unlike the 2016 social media photos, our farms were not as fresh looking back then as we like to remember.

The figures were bleak in 2016 and are indeed again today.

Similar to our lives, there have been a lot of highs and lows in the meantime.

It can be hard to see where to find some optimism at times, so farm as efficiently as possible, enjoy your work and remember, we have been here before.