Farmer Focus: Analysing risk and gauging opportunities

Isn’t it amazing how mother nature levels things up?

In 2025 we saw three months of above-average and four months of below-average rainfall, and my best guess is that we will end up about an inch shy of our long-term average wetting of 728mm a year.

See also: How agronomist is helping growers earn more from niche crops

About the author

Andrew Wilson
Arable Farmer Focus writer Andrew Wilson is a fourth-generation tenant of Castle Howard Estate in North Yorkshire. The farm supports crops of wheat, barley, oats, beans, sugar beet, potatoes, and grass for hay across 250ha. Other enterprises include bed and breakfast pigs, environmental stewardship, rooftop solar and contracting work.  
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The land is wet, but fortunately there are no jobs wasting in fields at the moment. With about 10 weeks to go before the beet factory closes, I am sure we will get a window to harvest what looks like a decent crop.

Much to the amusement of my team, I have acquired a tractor-mounted digger, mostly for the purpose of finding field drains.

It is a bit wet to test it out, but with the jetter on another of the old stagers, it will feel like a step back in time when we do.

I put some canes in where drains showed themselves back in the summer, and currently there are enough puddles to make the job of locating water fairly straightforward.

In terms of workload, the winter is shaping up to be a busy one. While potato movements should largely be under control, it is likely we will have a pig batch change early this year.

It was a “rum old year” in 2025, and 2026 does not look much less challenging. That said, where threat exists, so too does opportunity.

I do find a Swot (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis of our enterprises useful and a “what if” exercise. It helps find a route through the fog.

A few years ago I said: “If I don’t build that shed before I turn 50, it will never happen.” Well, I was 49 at the end of November, so we had better crack on.

Shiny things on wheels continue to escalate in price, so a building that earns a quid feels like a better bet.

It has been great to meet some readers of this column over the past year at various meetings and events. Thank you to those who made yourselves known.