FW columnists make harvest predictions

Forward-selling, blackgrass and an absence of pigeons – just three of the topics on the minds of three of our FW columnists as they gear up for harvest.


They gives us their views as combines start to roll across the countryside.


See also: Visit our Harvest Highlights gallery


Ian-Pigott Ian Pigott, Hertfordshire


Harvest 2014 will start somewhat earlier than I predicted. We will begin harvesting oilseed rape about 19 July… not ideal as I don’t return from holiday until 22 July.


As an overview, I would suggest the crops look healthy with the potential for some reasonable yields.


In 2014, we grew three crops in the rotation – wheat, oilseed rape and oats.


The wheats are predominantly Group 3 biscuit types and have established well and, other than the Robigus, have managed to weather the disease pressure. We have used a three-spray fungicide programme and, compared with other parts of the country, I don’t believe we have had quite the same septoria pressure.


Robigus will be dropped as we find it harder and harder to keep yellow rust at bay. Replacing it will be Diego – a more competitive variety, which will hopefully out-compete some of the blackgrass.


Control of blackgrass and some brome on the headlands has been poor. We have used a pre- and peri-emergence strategy. A combination of Crystal (pendimethlin and flufenacet) and Liberator (flufenacet and DFF), but where the weather prevented us from getting back on the ground while the blackgrass was still two-leaf we resorted to Atlantis, which was disastrous in nearly every field that it was used.


The ears look bold, no doubt helped by the recent showers followed by long periods of sunshine. About 45% of the wheat is sold and we hope will average about 8.5t/ha, which would be about 0.75t above our five-year average.


The oilseed rape established very well, as has most across the country. Pod-set has been very good and the pods are even and bold, although there is some evidence of sclerotinia on a couple of the headlands.


There has been little pigeon or rabbit damage, which should help drag up the average yield. Being optimistic, I will be disappointed if it doesn’t average 4t/ha.


Finally, the oats have been drilled either side of Christmas in a quest to get on top of blackgrass in the problem fields. They have never looked hungry and consequently have had less nitrogen than budgeted (only 94kg/ha applied).


Pesticide costs, including two fungicides, have been less than ÂŁ90/ha. It will be interesting to see how the differing sowing dates are reflected in yield.


David Richardson David Richardson, Norfolk


Never predict yields until the grain is in the barn – a lesson learned at my father’s knee. But I’ll stick my neck out even though combining hasn’t started.


After three ordinary years on this farm, our combinable crops look a lot better this time. I doubt if they’ll break records but I’ll be disappointed if they don’t yield above our long-term average.


First to cut, hopefully by the time you read this, will be the Quartz oilseed rape drilled in mid-August, which has looked promising from the start. It has all been sold forward at £252/t for September collection; a long way short of last year’s prices, but better than what’s available now.


Next will be the Glacier winter barley. It, too, has looked good through the year but suffered two cloudbursts a few days apart in late June and has lodged in places.


I’m sure the combine will pick it up, but quality may have suffered and it will take longer to dry, given the unsettled weather. Meanwhile our local pigeons have been helping themselves to the laid bits.


Most of our wheats look pretty good too and, like the barleys, have had the full complement of fungicides during the summer.


Will they average between 9t/ha and 10t/ha? I’ll tell you when it’s in the barn. But they have turned colour quickly in recent days and it won’t be long before they need cutting.


We sold about a third of what we expect to grow forward through the winter at prices ÂŁ30/t or more better than those ruling now.


What a pity we didn’t sell a lot more. Now we need a dry harvest. Current low values are less than production costs. Drying charges would add to losses.


An earlier-than-usual harvest is set to begin on 19 July at Ian Pigott’s farm.


Yields look promising for Volume winter barley, says Charlie Flindt.


Charlie Flindt Charlie Flindt, Hampshire


It’s easy to forget that our farm was unworkable until the first week of March. The bits that weren’t underwater could hardly support a welly, let alone a tractor. But everything looks well set up for harvest 2014.


The first wheats, Scout and Claire, look excellent – the Scout is particularly clean. Repairing the damage to our six-year rotation caused by autumn 2012 has meant using Panorama as a second wheat.


Historically, second wheats have been disasters here, but apart from some strong blackgrass patches and some flood damage, it has come along very well. No sign of take-all – yet.


We’ve tried some Volume winter barley this year; the price of the seed made me gulp, but my agronomist assured me that we wouldn’t have room to put the final product. It struggled with flooding down near the source of the Itchen, and a couple of sheep breakouts, but isn’t far off.


It looks good, if the long straw survives the storms. About 15ha of Retriever completes the winter barleys. Our 40ha of Propino spring barley looks respectable – some of it on less-than-ideal spring ground.


Sesame oilseed rape was sown into fallow ground in perfect conditions. The lack of pigeons, pheasants and partridges was a delight – deer have done most of the damage. But it’s tall and thick, and I look forward to getting stuck into it.


Winter beans have also had a good spring. Rooks methodically cleared a heavy brow, but the rest have levelled out at a good height. Plenty of pods, but easy to combine.


About 6ha of Gregor peas on the light land have loved the weather and the lack of pigeons (where are they?) I’m resigned to the nightmare of combining them, but there is no better break crop on the chalky stuff.

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