A decade might sound a long time, but in the plant breeding world it’s not that far off. Plant breeders are already working on wheat varieties that farmers will be growing in 2035.

But how will they look? Will they be conventionally bred and able to better withstand adverse weather?

And will they still require the triple dose of fungicides many cereals currently receive? Farmers Weekly gets some global expert views at the recent event in Istanbul.

See also: Why gene editing could help growers practising regen ag

Precision breeding techniques

Some 60 crops around the world have been adapted using gene-editing technology, and it is gathering pace, with most of the largest food exporting countries either already adopting precision breeding or in the process of doing so.

At present, gene editing (GE) is generally used early on in the breeding process, but over the next decade there will be a big push to use the technology in existing elite lines, says Dr Evan Ellison from the department of plant sciences at the University of Cambridge.

“This means using GE technology further along in the breeding process in varieties that are well in progress, to make modifications that further improve their yield, resilience or resistance.”

By doing this, the “precision bred bonus” comes into play much sooner, sometimes only in a few years, Evan says.

“In our current use of the technology we are able to knock out negative traits that are linked to beneficial traits.

“For example, if disease resistance is linked with drought susceptibility, we can remove that negative trait and retain the resistance using GE.

“In conventional plant breeding these genomes would be locked.”

A lot of the focus in arable crops is on breeding for abiotic stress resistance, such as drought, and biotic resistance to improve plant immunity, so growers can expect to see more resilient varieties coming to the fore based on this, says Evan.

“There are a lot of interesting developments on all fronts.

“It is about finding the balance between focusing on farmer-driven traits that will make the crop more profitable, and consumer-positive traits.

“Our goal is to combine these traits together.”

The UK could also particularly benefit from improvements to crops such as pulses or beans, and milling wheat, which can all suffer in quality in challenging seasons.

In other crops, short-stature maize, strawberries with double the shelf life and bananas that don’t go brown are products being slowly brought to market globally using precision breeding.

And while he hopes precision breeding will become the mainstream, Evan does not expect it to wholly replace genetically modified (GM) products in countries it is accepted, nor traditional breeding methods. 

“The future is using precision breeding with conventional breeding as a handshake, working together to further improve existing lines.”

He explains that for GM, there are things it can do, that GE cannot, and vice versa.

“Bt [Bacillus thuringiensis] insect resistance is one of the most common GM traits, and with our current knowledge we can’t integrate that using GE.

“But there are some traits we can explore and there is a lot of work being done in GE to find new herbicide-resistance mechanisms.

“Long term, there is certainly a place for both depending on the region and local markets.”

A biological future

The development of biological seed treatments – the umbrella term for bacteria-derived biopesticides, biostimulants and endophytes – is expected to grow exponentially over the next decade, particularly in the UK and Europe as chemical products become less available.

Dr Drieke Fourie, product biologist for Syngenta, says: “The research is on track and we’re seeing a lot of new products come out.

“There is a big increase in the number of both live microbes and secondary metabolites being developed and used as biopesticides.”

While biologicals still carry a reputation for their variability in performance, they could offer longevity benefits over conventional pesticides, says Drieke.

“Products like these are beneficial because they help to broaden diversity and the soil biome.

“When you apply a nematicide, it works for 80-90 days. If the crop is growing for 180 days, then we run into problems in those final months.

“If you apply a live biological, it will keep reproducing and will build up in numbers, so we have that protection until the end of the season.

“A molecule will work for so long and break down, but a biological, if you don’t kill it and environmental conditions are favourable, should be able to build up.”

However, she does not believe such seed treatments would act as an out-and-out replacement for chemical controls, with everything from soil temperature and type, to crop rotations effecting the efficacy and shelf life of biologicals.

“These products would be complementary rather than either/or.

“We cannot get away from chemistry, especially in places where the pressure of pathogens is so high that nothing is going to work on its own.”

Syngenta is maintaining a balanced portfolio, but biologicals are receiving increasing investment, Drieke says.

This growing focus on biologicals is also likely to lead to further consolidation of seed and biologicals companies, as was seen with synthetic chemistry.

Remco Kwakman, global seed technology lead for vegetables at Syngenta, says there are a lot of partnerships happening between seed companies and biologicals companies at the moment.

“I think that will change in the longer run, where the seed companies will start to develop more in-depth knowledge around biological products themselves and build the integrated knowledge to create these offers.”

Policy uncertainty stifling investment

Plant breeding alone accounted for 67% of agricultural productivity gains in the past 20 years, according to a report by Plants for the Future European Technology Platform.

It has the potential to address a wide range of challenges across the supply chain, from food security to food waste as well as a number of environmental issues.

But the UK’s uncertainty surrounding farming policy is stifling innovation, says Dr Anthony Hopkins, head of policy at the British Society of Plant Breeders.

“The Precision Breeding Act presents a great opportunity to invest and international breeders are keen to bring things here, but they are nervous about policy uncertainty.

“Some individual companies have already made it clear they are going to focus on breeding programmes in Europe instead.”

However, as global policy for precision-bred organisms aligns, Anthony believes over the next decade this new era of plant breeding is set to become the mainstream.

“If you look at Canada, South America, the US and Australia, this technology has been widely accepted without backlash or widespread concern.”

Plant breeding is a global business, and if everyone is moving in the same direction, it allows us to share and benefit from the technology everywhere.

“If we get policy right, then we’ll see companies developing a wider range of crops that are suitable to the UK climate, offer benefits to farmers and help supply chains reduce the impact of producing food.”

Artificial intelligence and big data

The growing role of artificial intelligence is already transforming the way in which plant breeders work, creating much faster and robust methods of phenotyping.

The University of Cambridge’s Dr Evan Ellison says: “Our ability to phenotype using artificial intelligence is incredible.

“You can make a really precise measurement very quickly.

“Now I can look at hundreds or thousands of plants, rather than just dozens previously.

“Artificial intelligence is going to really help us understand which markers in the plant contribute to each trait and we can use that to inform the next target or improvement and then partner them together really well.”

Across Bayer Crop Science, many initiatives are under way to leverage artificial intelligence.

Cristiane Lourenco, director of global sustainability at Bayer Vegetable Seeds, says modelling tools are not only helping the company to create accurate pictures of climate and water availability over the next 50 years to develop more climate-resilient varieties, but to support knowledge transfer.

“We use artificial intelligence for knowledge transfer within our teams, but also with our growers.

“Some smallholders might not have access to these new seed technologies, so when they get access we want to ensure they are using it correctly, and artificial intelligence can be a really powerful tool for that.”