Lower US global wheat forecast fails to lift prices

Grain prices failed to draw support from the latest US Department of Agriculture’s global supply and demand report, despite its forecast of lower wheat production and stocks.

The report, published on 12 June, cut global wheat production by 5.5m tonnes, to 672m tonnes, and lowered ending stocks by nearly 2.5m tonnes, to 186m tonnes. Production was forecast to be lower in Russia (-3m tonnes), the EU (-1m tonnes) and Turkey.

However, maize supplies were 4.2m tonnes larger than previously forecast, with Chinese production rising by 2m tonnes, and possibly record yields in America boosting ending stocks to 155.7m tonnes – 20% more than last year and 3.5m tonnes more than last month’s expectation.

Global oilseed production was cut by nearly 700,00t, to 470.8m tonnes, but slightly reduced consumption meant ending stocks remained almost unchanged at 65.8m tonnes.

London wheat futures dropped by £2.80/t on 12 June to £154/t for November, before recovering £1.50/t as Farmers Weekly went to press. Spot ex-farm values ended the week slightly firmer, at about £168/t.

Spot oilseed rape markets fell by £1, to £359/t, with new crop values rising by around £4/t to about £352/t for harvest movement. Feed beans and peas shared in the gain, up by nearly £5/t, to £220-£222/t ex-farm for June.

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