Global grain surplus to limit export prospects for UK wheat

A glut of grain globally is weighing on markets and could continue to restrict UK wheat exports and prices in the coming months, according to industry outlooks.

The International Grain Council has forecast global grain production for the 2025-26 crop year at 2.4bn tonnes, a 3.5% increase on the previous year.

Meanwhile, in the domestic market, demand for grain may also reduce, with less interest expected from UK millers, brewers, and the biofuels sector.

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The AHDB has published its latest Cereals Market Outlook, which suggests UK prices have been tracking international markets, and notes that a large maize crop is currently weighing on global prices.

Looking ahead, the outlook projects that new season plantings and crop establishment in the northern hemisphere will provide a key watch point for markets.

Domestic market

The final harvest progress report, produced by the AHDB in partnership with the Andersons Centre, estimated the average UK wheat yield at 7.6t/ha this year.

Olivia Bonser, senior analyst at the AHDB, said: “UK production currently looks to sit at around 12.2m tonnes, up 10% from last year’s crop, but 12% lower than on the 10-year average.”

However, she noted that with such variability this season, final UK yields and production remain subject to change.

UK wheat exports were back by 23% during the 2024-25 crop year, meanwhile imports have surged to record high levels in recent months.

Ms Bonser added that the outlook for 2025-26 wheat imports would largely depend on the final size and quality of the UK crop.

“At the moment, millers remain well supplied, and larger imported wheat stocks are expected to be carried into the new season, which could reduce immediate import demand,” she said.

Global drivers

A recent uplift in global grain production has been driven predominantly by increased maize production, with improved crop conditions in the US following rainfall.

Gabriel Odiase, analyst at the AHDB, said: “The expected rise in global maize production continues to weigh on grain prices in the short term.

“However, if we experience adverse weather conditions, particularly when crops are at their vital stage of development, we could see some support for prices.

“In addition, we may see more momentum once major buyers like Mexico, Japan, the EU and China, become more active in the market.”

Availability from large global wheat exporters, such as Russia, also continues to sway global markets, and reports from Black Sea consultancy firm SovEcon indicate that an increase in Russian wheat supply may put further pressure on prices.

Andrey Sizov, managing director at SovEcon, said: “Falling Russian wheat prices remain a key bearish factor for the global market.”

Mr Odiase added that European wheat prices had recently come under pressure, influenced by ongoing harvesting, strong supply prospects, currency fluctuations and weaker export demand. 

He concluded that geopolitical risks may also influence markets in the months ahead.