Heavy US stocks put pressure on subdued wheat market
© Gerenme/iStockphoto Wheat markets continue to bumble along with ex-farm values stuck in the low £160s and farmers desperately looking for any sell opportunities.
Global supplies remain abundant, with the latest stock report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), released on Tuesday 30 September, putting total wheat currently in store in the US at 2.12bn bushels (57.7m tonnes), up 6% from a year ago and ahead of market expectations.
This just added to already bearish sentiment overshadowing the market.
See also: Potato growers squeezed with ex-farm prices under pressure
Russian wheat production for this year has been revised up again by the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies in Moscow to 87.5m tonnes, while the EU Commission puts 2025-26 soft wheat production at a 10-year high of 132.6m tonnes – 4.5m tonnes more than last season.
But perhaps the biggest bear factor is the US maize harvest.
With 18% cut by 28 September, the USDA is forecasting an outturn of 427m tonnes – which would be a record and significantly more than the 378m tonnes harvested last year.
Contract lows
The latest US data have triggered a further price downturn, with futures markets hitting new contract lows in all major markets on Tuesday (30 September).
November wheat contracts reached £164.05/t in London – down £2.45/t on the previous day’s close.
The Farmers Weekly ex-farm price for feed wheat was stuck at a disappointing £162.73/t on Wednesday 1 October.
“Farmers have been desperately trying to avoid selling at these levels, though we have seen some movement recently as they have had to liquidate grain for cash to pay bills,” said trader Gary Bright at Grainco.
“The simple fact is there is too much around, and the only things that could change it would be a collapse in the value of sterling or several disasters affecting next year’s crops.”
Josef Grinczer, senior buyer with Cefetra, agreed it would take some major geopolitical event to shake the market.
“The funds are currently short in grain, anticipating further falls – and they are probably right,” he said.
“There is still potential downside, so farmers should be watching closely and sell into any spikes. But it would have to be a very big story to change the fundamentals in this market.”
According to AHDB senior analyst Helen Plant, about the only bull factor is that the EU maize harvest is not so good.
The crop struggled with hot, dry weather, particularly in south-eastern Europe, which has hit yields.
Crop monitoring service MARS has cut the EU maize forecast to 6.88t/ha – some 3% below the five-year average.
UK harvest 2025 – final report
The AHDB has issued its final harvest 2025 report, suggesting that overall wheat and barley yields are slightly better than last year – despite the summer drought.
According to the levy board, wheat on UK farms averaged 7.6t/ha – up from last year’s 7.3t/ha but still 6% lower than the 10-year average.
And it’s a similar picture for winter barley, with 2025 harvest yield put at 6.7t/ha.
But the AHDB also points to great variability, with some growers experiencing far lower yields.
“Even where yields have been above expectations from earlier in the year, price declines throughout the course of the year will have had a significant impact on profitability of arable farms,” said a spokesman.