Spring barley area set to fall by 15% in 2026 as wheat rises

Provisional estimates forecast the total UK barley area will fall next year to the lowest levels since 2010, at below 1m hectares.

The spring barley area is expected to fall by 15% on the year to 610,000ha, while winter barley is forecast for a 2% decline to 356,000ha.

Initial figures from AHDB’s Early Bird survey indicate that oats will also have a smaller cropping area in 2025, while wheat and oilseed rape crops are likely to cover a larger area.

See also: Redundancies at maltsters raise alarm for barley growers

The UK wheat area is forecast to increase by 1% on the year to 1.67m hectares, but remain below the five-year average.

Meanwhile, the oilseed rape area is forecast to rebound by almost a third to 316,000ha, after reaching a 40-year low in recent years.

Market environment

Helen Plant, senior cereals and oilseeds analyst at AHDB, said: “Although the forecasts for autumn drilling conditions were generally good in 2025, the market environment is challenging, with lower prices for cereals and lower milling and malting premiums, plus increased costs for all crops.

“As a result, oilseed rape probably had a more favourable margin outlook compared to other crops, as well as the good yields achieved in 2025.”

The area of uncropped arable land, which includes fallow land and ground in environmental schemes such as the Sustainable Farming Incentive, is expected to increase by 8% in 2026.

Ms Plant added: “The poor cereal yields of the past two years, along with ongoing commitments to agri-environment schemes and rotation needs, are also likely to influence 2026 planting plans.”