UK wheat strengthens to £165/t as US-China talks lift markets

Flickers of optimism have returned to grain markets this week, with UK wheat futures rebounding to near £165/t for November after hitting a contract low of £159/t last week.

The improved sentiment has been fuelled by traders responding to news of easing tensions between the US and China.

However, it is unclear whether the most recent uplift can be sustained with a global oversupply of grain still weighing on markets.

See also: Ag chem shortage puts pressure on arable farmers

Cereals and oilseeds markets rallied following the announcement of a trade framework agreement between the two major economies on 26 October.

A meeting between US president Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping is scheduled to take place in South Korea on 30 October, with the outcome expected to further influence markets.

The May 2026 UK feed wheat contract reached a six-week high of £179.85/t on 28 October, before settling at £178/t midweek.

Buying from technical traders looking to take advantage of the shift could offer additional short-term support to prices.

Farmer selling remains subdued, with wheat prices still leaving little to no margin for growers.

Andrew Dewing, chief executive of Norfolk-based merchant Dewing Grain, told Farmers Weekly that all markets had reacted to a jump in US values.

He stated that markets were still oversupplied, with harvests around the world being either already completed or in good condition.

“Nothing has fundamentally changed in supply because the UK harvest is in. In Europe, wheat is cut and they are well through their maize harvest and the Australian harvest also looks big,” said Mr Dewing.

“I think it is an opportunity to take advantage of a price hike; I can’t see a massive rally.

“If the price goes up too much at the moment, then it won’t take long for imports to increase.”

He suggested that the UK was still quite highly priced compared with other parts of Europe and the current uplift may present a short-term selling opportunity for growers looking to sell pre-Christmas.

Mr Dewing noted that farmers largely had wheat to trade and many were hanging on to it in the hope of higher prices, but suggested they may be forced to sell at some point.

“There’s glimmers of light but nothing that is going to make a huge fortune.”  

He added that post-Christmas trade was likely be driven by the weather and its impact on crops.

Planting progress

The EU’s Mars October crop bulletin suggests favourable winter sowing conditions across central Europe, with good emergence and early crop development.

However, wetter conditions in eastern regions has delayed drilling.

Plantings in the UK have been progressing well, with promising conditions for drilling.

Expectations of a larger UK wheat crop next year could weigh on the trade with the UK still struggling to compete in export markets.

At a global level, the International Grains Council (IGC) has increased its world total grains production forecast for 2025-26 by 13m tonnes on month earlier levels to 2.42bn tonnes.