World grain prices round-up
© Tim Scrivener UK wheat prices stayed firm this week, averaging £143.70/t ex-farm from April.
However the regional spread of prices is still wide, ranging from £137/t in the South East to £150/t in the North West.
“Delivered premiums remain very firm in the areas of most demand (North East and North West), while the general lack of export demand in the East and South mean markets are trading at a hefty discount,” said Gleadell Agriculture managing director David Sheppard.
“Exports have slowed considerably over the past weeks, and Egypt, Algeria and Saudi [Arabia] are all seemingly now covered until domestic harvests commence. One wonders where any extra demand will surface.”
The European Commission’s Mars satellite crop monitoring service has forecast the UK wheat crop to yield 8.16t/ha compared with 7.89t/ha last year, against the five-year average of 7.87t/ha.
See also: Latest regional ex-farm grain and oilseed prices
If the Mars yield estimates hold true, this would mean a UK wheat crop of 14.6m tonnes – 14.7m tonnes compared with 14.4m tonnes in 2016.
While EU crop conditions are generally good, there are some concerns about dryness in Poland, Ukraine, Romania and Spain.
The International Grains Council (IGC) also issued estimates this week which put global wheat and maize crops and end of season stocks slightly lower than last year.
Commenting on the IGC figures, AHDB senior analyst Helen Plant said: “Caution is needed this far ahead of harvest, as spring planting is still under way in the northern hemisphere and planting of southern hemisphere maize crops won’t even begin until our autumn.”
A report on US planting intentions was due on Friday evening (31 March) with any surprises contained in this likely to move markets as the US accounts for about a third of global maize output.
“While a deficit is tentatively projected, global stocks were already high at the start of this season and the extra stocks expected to be added in 2016-17 would mostly offset a 3% fall [maize and wheat area] in output.
“As such, a deficit of this magnitude would likely add a bit more sensitivity to markets, as opposed to causing a significant shift in global price levels,” said Ms Plant.
UK barley markets were quiet, with feed barley averaging £120.50/t ex-farm for April.
Oilseed rape lost £4/t in the second half of the week, averaging £342.70/t ex-farm, with prices pressured by the arrival of imported seed to Liverpool.