Red meat and dairy sales uplift forecast for Christmas

A sales uplift in red meat and dairy is forecast in the run-up to Christmas, as new figures point to sustained consumer demand for beef post-Covid and rising demand for cheese and alcoholic creams.

Market analyst Kantar Worldpanel predicts a 10% rise in Christmas grocery sales compared with 2019, although this is 3% down on last year when there was a greater level of eating at home.

With more social gatherings expected after the pandemic curtailed celebrations in 2020, the AHDB’s consumer and retail insight analysts suggest a recovery in cheese sales on last year’s figures.

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Milk, butter and cream markets are also set to benefit from bigger gatherings, said Kim Malley, senior retail insight manager at the AHDB.

“We predict that alcoholic cream – a typical Christmas favourite, which grew slower than total cream last year – could see a surge,’’ she says.

Pigs in blankets are expected to bring a festive boost for the pork sector, with the traditional trimming featuring prominently at the Christmas table.

And to mitigate concerns around supply and demand, as well as budget constraints, frozen meat joints are expected to have a stronger year.

For red meat, 2020 was the best Christmas on record, outperforming both turkey and whole fish.

Increased beef popularity

Meanwhile, further market analysis conducted by Kantar on beef consumption shows that consumers are now buying more beef than they were two years ago.

During the 12-week period to 31 October 2021, consumers spent £512.1m on beef at retail across Great Britain.

Although this is down on the same period last year, it is 4.4% higher than the pre-Covid spend in 2019.

The research shows that consumers have been spending more on steaks and roasting joints than in 2019, while the proportion sold as mince is smaller.

Glesni Phillips, data analyst at Hybu Cig Cymru – Meat Promotion Wales, says this is positive in terms of maintaining carcass balance and maximising carcass value.

Industry reports suggest a firm demand for beef in the run-up to Christmas, she adds.

This, combined with a tight supply of cattle on the ground, is supporting the strong farmgate prices currently seen at livestock markets.