Pig numbers fall, but price pressures remain

The English pig herd decreased by 3% to 3.8 million head compared with a year earlier, according to 2015 June census figures.

The decline in the total number of pigs was mainly driven by the drop in numbers of fattening pigs, which dropped 4% to 3.4 million head in June 2015 compared with the previous year. 

The number of breeding pigs remained fairly static at 328,000.

See also: Pig prices pressured as supplies rise for 22nd consecutive month

However, AHDB Pork has suggested the figures should be treated with some caution.

It pointed out that the June census suggested numbers of fattening pigs were back for all weight bands, suggesting a fall in pig slaughterings from June onwards.

However, clean pig slaughterings have remained up year on year throughout 2015.

Stuart Ashworth, head of economics services at Quality Meat Scotland, raised a similar query.

He said UK slaughter data showed an increase of almost 5% in UK prime pig slaughterings over the past three months compared with last year.

“This has contributed to a slow slide in UK prices, which have slipped about 1% since the start of August.”

Mr Ashworth said pig producers across the UK and Europe were struggling to maintain margins because of a range of global factors.

“The fallout from Russian restrictions on trade and the effects of African swine fever in eastern Europe continue to weigh heavily on the market,” said Mr Ashworth.

The European Union had been successful in finding other markets and increasing exports to non-EU markets by 3.6% in the first six months of the year.

But there was strong competition from Brazil and the US, so this trade was price sensitive, he said.

There had also been a growth in EU production of just over 2% in the first half of the year which had left Europe well supplied with pigmeat.

“Consequently, the growth in exports outside the EU did little to increase producer prices and currently the average producer price across Europe is about 10% lower than last year,” he said.

Mr Ashworth said the price falls had been felt even harder in the UK because in sterling terms prices were about 15% lower than last year.

But European forecasts regarding short-term future production across Europe suggest little respite for producers, with production in the second half of 2015 expected to be 1.5-2% higher than last year.