Oilseed rape markets have dropped back sharply over the past week, with wheat and barley also easing following a bearish global crop report.
The International Grains Council forecast a 4% annual increase in global wheat production to 683m tonnes, with maize production up by 11% to 946m tonnes. “Despite strong demand growth, maize stocks are likely to rise by 25%, to a 13-year high of 149m tonnes,” said the report.
It pegged soya bean production at a record 284m tonnes, up 6%, year-on-year, with ending stocks rising by as much as 28% to 33m tonnes. “The rapeseed market is likely to remain extremely tight, with world carryovers declining marginally, including in key exporters.”
UK rapeseed markets fell to about £310/t ex-farm for harvest movement, with wheat down to around £157/t. The HGCA’s latest crop report said harvest was likely to be two weeks behind average, with 85% of wheat, 95% of other cereals and 70% of oilseed rape crops in fair to good condition.
“How this translates into yield will depend on the weather in the next six to eight weeks. Many crops have poor root structure which could leave them vulnerable if conditions turn hot and dry.”