World grain trade set to grow 50% by 2030

World grain imports will grow by more than 50% by 2030 because incrases in crop production will not be in the regions where population and demand are growing.

US Wheat Associates president Alan Tracy told the International Grains Council’s annual conference in London that trade was set to grow to around 465m tonnes a year from the current 310m tonnes.

This means the world wheat import trade, which this year is set to be about 112m tonnes of a 650m tonne crop, reaching 190m tonnes by 2030. Corn import trade volumes are likely to rise from 34.2m tonnes to more than 75m tonnes and soyabean trade from 93m tonnes to 150m tonnes.

These increases had major implications for all in the grain trade and for governments.

“No one area can meet that demand, not even the Black Sea,” said Mr Tracy. Higher price volatility would call for better risk management and supply chain relationships.” He encouraged buyers to form close relationships to ensure they had first call on supplies when times got tight. The increase in the volume of trade would also put pressure on shippers and a strain on handling facilities.