Farmer Focus: Is a drop coming in milk prices?
Gillian O'Sullivan © Cathal Noonan I always say there are three big risks to any farm business: policy/regulation, market price fluctuations and Mother Nature.
We are just coming to the end of an exceptional period for milk price.
A decline is on the horizon, with the first milk price cuts for more than a year across some European milk processors. Inevitably, more will follow.
See also: Weak markets and high supply squeeze farmgate milk prices
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Averaging 73.5c/l (63p/litre) from our milk processor to the end of October breaks all kinds of records.
This, of course, is great, but high milk prices are a double-edged sword for two key reasons: system drift and work-life balance.
The comfort blanket of a high milk price means the cost of milking into the winter for seasonal grass-based systems is less of a concern.
The principles of grass-based dairying are just that – produce milk off grass with low supplement feeding to match milk production to grass growth.
Key attributes for spring-block systems are good grassland management, good stock skills and efficient and resourceful decision making.
Milk price can be a fickle mistress, leading producers down a path focused on output.
The rise in input costs has been significant, but once covered by milk price, it has been well tolerated.
The attractive sway of milk output has led to a drift towards greater concentrate inputs and higher costs.
Concentrate feeding has been well in excess of 1t a cow across most farms for 2022.
The main issue is that concentrate can be a difficult addiction to detox from as the kick of production can be a massive high.
I fear 2023 is set to be a year with declining milk prices but high input costs. December requires rehabilitation for some to reassess the year’s performance and, if needs be, put a detox plan in place.
We put huge value on the eight weeks of downtime for our family farm while the cows are dry.
We dried off at the end of November and turned off the alarm clocks. Family trips are already booked. Batteries are being recharged.
Despite the temptation to milk into December, it is time to be disciplined and enjoy what has been a good year.