A VERY DISTANT THREAT
A VERY DISTANT THREAT
Western Europe now views Ukraine, the second largest
country in Europe after Russia (and once regarded as
the breadbasket of the Soviet Union) as a potential
competitor. Are they right to be concerned? Yes and no,
say Mike Lee and Henry Matthews who spent time in
Ukraine lecturing on pesticide use as part of a
Writtle College-managed, British Council-funded project
UKRAINE no doubt has the potential to become a very large producer of agricultural commodities. Not least because the country is very large, but also because about half of it consists of exceptionally fertile black soil that is ideally suited to agriculture. Most of Ukraine has four distinct seasons and a moderate, Continental climate with cold winters and warm summers. The average temperature in Kiev – the capital city – is -6C (21F) in January and 20C (69F) in July. Rainfall averages 500mm/year (20in), but with considerable regional variation.
Last year saw a record post-independence harvest of 37m tonnes of grain, which has come from crops yielding in the region of 3-4 t/ha, well below their full potential. Exports from Ukraine are expected to reach 6m tonnes, triple what they were last year.
At an average price of $70 (£50)/t, that equates to approximately $420m (£300m) worth of exports. However, figures are difficult to come by because – as with many of Ukraines lucrative businesses – grain trading is anything but transparent. In a country where the average wage is $50/month (£36), nobody likes to admit they are getting rich.
Handling and storage
According to insiders, it is difficult for Ukraine to export more than 6m tonnes of grain because its handling and storage infrastructure is old and dilapidated. The potential surpluses that cannot be exported this year will more than likely be bought by grain exporters and stored until next year.
The state has also relaxed the laws on grain export. In the past the governments food security policy has meant that controls were routinely imposed on grain movement out of the country. The International Monetary Fund and the private grain traders no longer tolerate this practice today. In short, things are looking up for Ukraines grain exporters.
Food security has been the rationale behind many of the controls in the grain and other agricultural sectors. A brief look at Ukraines history, with atrocities such as the Great Hunger of 1932-33, a man-made famine that starved 4-5m people to death, the German occupation of 1941-45 and the deprivations of the Soviet era, makes you realise why the government is so preoccupied with food security.
Positive noises
The apparent buoyancy of the grain sector and the positive noises emanating from Ukraine must be seen in perspective. Ukraine is still a very financially poor country. It is still suffering from decades of Soviet rule, with its command-led economy and lack of investment in the infrastructure. The machinery is old, broken and rusted, the buildings dilapidated and the livestock thin and wistful. Young people are leaving the villages in favour of the cities and farms have too many older employees. In short, farming is a challenge.
The farms are very big, but then again so is the country. Take your Lada down one of the main pot-holed and very bumpy roads out of Kiev and you can drive for hour after hour under a huge grey oppressive sky, with flat fields either side.
The west shouldnt see Ukraine as a threat. It will take many years before it is seen as a keenly priced exporter of agricultural commodities. It should be seen with humanitarian compassion and should be assisted in every way we can.
Above: Combining, Ukraine-style. The country was once known as the bread-basket of the USSR.
Left: Pig production.
Right: Sugar beet grows well on Ukraines
flat fertile fields.
Below: Though farms are large, underinvestment during the Soviet era
has left them in
need of funds.