Bumper year ahead for Australias farmers
By Boyd Champness
MOST agriculture sectors are heading for a bumper year in 2000-01 on the back of a strong recovery in Asia and a boom in Europe, according to the nations top commodity forecaster.
In one of the brightest rural outlooks for years, the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics (ABARE) has predicted cash income on farms will rise by almost 12% to A$7.5 billion (2.9bn) in 2000-01.
The latest ABARE forecasts were released last week at ABAREs annual Outlook conference in Canberra.
Prices received by farmers in 2000-01 are set to rise by 2.6%, farm production by 3% (to A$29.7bn/15.3bn), and farm exports by 3.6% (to A$23.89bn).
“The world price outlook for most of our major export commodities is firm over the next couple of years,” ABARE executive director Mr Brian Fisher told the conference.
“However, the outlook for some commodities remains gloomy, principally because of ongoing distortion of world markets due to trade restrictions and domestic protection.”
Woolgrowers – whove been hit by falling prices in recent years- are expected to benefit most with ABARE tipping a hefty 9% increase in prices for next seasons wool.
The Eastern Market Indicator is forecast to average 693/kg of wool during 2000-01 – the best result in three years – compared with the 580 average (up to last week) for the current season.
Australias 1999 record wheat harvest of 24 million tonnes has seen prices slip slightly this year, but the good news is that prices are expected to rebound by 3% to A$180 a tonne in 2000-01 on the back of a smaller crop of 22.7 million tonnes.
After world dairy prices crashed to their lowest levels in a decade this year, they are expected to recover in 2000-01 as renewed economic growth – especially in Asia – stimulates demand for dairy products.
Increased world demand and higher prices for manufactured dairy products should materialise; helping lift local returns to around 22.6/litre for manufactured milk. Dairy exports are expected to jump by almost 5% to A$2.36bn.
Beef prices are also expected to rise with saleyard prices for cattle forecast to be 5% higher at an average of 221/kg (85p/kg). However, prime lamb prices are expected to remain static or fall slightly.
Australias glamour industry of the past decade, wine, is set to continue its boom, with exports tipped to surge past A$1.5bn in 2000-01 and more than 1.3 million hectares planted to wine grapes.