Coarse grains up 6m tonnes in monthly IGC figures

By FWi staff

WORLD production of coarse grains is expected to rise six million on last month at 882 million tonnes on the back of higher forecasts for maize and sorghum in the US and barley in the EC.

But the prospects in Russia have deteriorated further, noted the International Grains Council (IGC).

World estimates – coarse grain
  96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 (forecast as at 23/06/99) 99-00 (forecast as at 28/07/99)
Production 914 895 888 876 882
Trade 92 88 95 96 97
Consumption 881 885 878 875 874
Stocks 124 134 144 142 152

The output for barley in Russia has been lowered by two million to 12m tonnes.

World trade is projected to increase by two million to 97m tonnes as further recovery in feed grain markets is seen. An uplift in demand for malting barley could also improve trade.

Although modest increases are projected for most regions, the more noteworthy changes are for maize in South Africa and barley by Iran, said the IGC in its monthly report.

“Global trade is expected to strengthen for all coarse grains, except for rye and oats.”

World consumption is expected to decrease by one million from last month at 874 million tonnes.

Low prices have yet to stimulate any real demand except in the US where large stocks of meat are pressuring livestock prices.

“The recent rise in consumption of pigmeat in the EC is slowing down, and export prospects for pork remain uncertain,” noted the IGC.

“Domestic demand for feed grains could be challenged by competitive prices for imported non-cereal feeds such as citrus pulp.”

World stocks are projected to rise 10 million tonnes on last month at 152m tonnes on the back of higher harvest estimates in the EC and US.

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