Cotton forecast errors put industry in a spin

06 May 1998

Cotton forecast ‘errors’ put industry in a spin

THE Indian textile industry is calling for a review of the forecasting system after a “series of errors” in the current seasons cotton crop forecast.

The 1997-98 crop has been revised downwards from 17.2 million bales of 170kg of cotton to 14.8m bales. This is also subject to further revision.

The East India Cotton Mills Association said the forecast of a bumper crop in September had led most mills to run down their inventories of cotton following a record crop the previous year. And the federal government introduce an export quota in anticipation of a collapse in prices early in the season, but all the calculations proved wrong.

Industry officials want the Cotton Advisory Board to make a study of the cotton crop monitoring system in the USA, Australia and Israel and to introduce more reliable forecasting practices.

  • Financial Times 06/05/98 page 34

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