Defra pig data called into question

Figures released by Defra, which suggest that the UK pig breeding herd has fallen to a new low, have been questioned by the AHDB.

The number of pigs in the UK remained broadly stable at 4.7m in 2025, with a 0.5% rise in the overall herd.

But Defra’s June 2025 census figures, released at the end of December, indicate that the female pig breeding herd decreased by 3.3%, reaching a new low of 316,000 head.

See also: Outlook 2025: Pig margins stay positive in changing sector

The census figures also show the number of sows in-pig declined by 1.5% year on year to 233,000 head.

And in-pig gilt numbers were down 7.7% to 39,000.

Dry sows or those being suckled were down 8.6% to 44,000 head.

However, the AHDB has challenged the findings.

It points to other data sources that imply a smaller change in the number of breeding pigs – for example, Agrovision KPIs indicate a 1% decline in Q2 2025 versus Q2 2024.

The annual June survey is conducted on a sample of commercial holdings and then scaled up to the national level and is subject to a non-response bias, according to the AHDB.

“While none of the data sets give a complete picture as they are sample surveys, the information is used for forecasting by allied industries and that data is vital,” said Freya Shuttleworth, senior analyst at the AHDB.

“We have contacted Defra to discuss the data methodology and highlighted the importance of accurate and timely data reporting,” she added.

National discrepancy

Meanwhile, eMB submission data (a requirement for Red Tractor and QMS-assured farms) for Q2 shows differing trends by country for breeding pigs, with both England and Scotland down 2% compared to the -4% and -17%, respectively, recorded by Defra.

For Northern Ireland, numbers are down 5% compared with Defra’s 10% growth.

Ms Shuttleworth added that, with allied industries now reviewing budgets and evaluating available data, there could be a knock-on effect.

“We were expecting a decline, but a much smaller decline than what has been shown by the Defra figures.

“Businesses will now be re-evaluating their activity based on that data and adjusting accordingly,” she added.

Future supply

Despite the differing data sets, National Pig Association senior policy adviser Katie Jarvis said: “Supply going forward in the short term is expected to be sufficient as we are aware of pigs backed up on farm due to poorer demand at the end of last year.

“We would expect demand to lift in spring/summer, which could result in tighter supply.

“But it will depend on how the market develops and whether pork continues to benefit from high beef prices.”

Defra have been approached for comment.