Disease has peaked, say scientists

4 April 2001



Disease has peaked, say scientists

By FWi staff

THE foot-and-mouth epidemic which has swept the country may have already peaked, according to the latest computer predictions.

A computer model set up at Imperial College, London forecasts that new case numbers will now start dropping off and could fall to below 10 a day by 14 June.

Imperial College used confirmation-to-slaughter times of under 24 hours for infected farms and 48 hours for neighbouring units to make its prediction.

Its findings were revealed by Government Chief Scientist David King, who refused to be drawn on whether his own views co-incided with the study.

But Prof King, who a fortnight ago said there could be more than 4000 cases by June, said Government policies to eradicate the disease are beginning to work.

“The important message is that I believe the policy is beginning to bite,” he told journalists at a briefing in London on Wednesday (4 April).

Prof King said that the Government had made huge strides towards reducing its target times to slaughter.

“I believe it is vitally important that we continue to improve the achievement rate of the 24hr cull on infected farms and 48hrs on neighbouring farms,” he said.

“That is the key to getting on a downward curve,” he said.

Professor King said original policy projections were that the number of daily cases would average 65-70 a day.

But the twin policies of reducing slaughter times and the cull on adjacent farms had reduced this to 40-45 a day.

Asked about the possible introduction of vaccination, he said the models showed that the 24/48-hour regime was the best policy.

As a result the Government was still holding vaccination back as a reserve.

But Prof King warned that the outcome could be affected by the weather and if animals were turned out.

Warmer weather would make the disease easier to control but turning cattle out was a concern, he said.

MAFF is expected to put guidance out to producers on this issue later this week.

National Farmers Union president Ben Gill said Prof Kings comments were “a glimmer of hope for Britains countryside”.

“This report provides a much-needed sign that the current slaughter and destruction strategy is having an impact on the daily incidence of this disease,” he said.

By 1800hrs on Wednesday, 1014 outbreaks of foot-and-mouth had been confirmed in the UK, including 23 cases since 1900hrs on Tuesday.