GMfears boost pulse prospects
GMfears boost pulse prospects
UK pulse growers seem set to reap benefits from the genetically modified food furore.
Already new crop prices have firmed as the trade anticipate increased demand for the GM-free produce.
But retailer moves to source more identity preserved, non-genetically modified soya could mean premiums are short-lived.
In recent weeks prices for home-grown beans have firmed by £5-£6/t for Oct-Dec delivery, while wheat values have been relatively static, says Bryan Mills, commodity director for Banbury based feed ingredient suppliers Cherwell Valley Silos.
"Home-produced pulses and rapeseed meet the criteria of being non-GM by default. It is this realisation that has pushed the price of pulses up in the past 2-3 weeks. Whether it is a genuine demand, or speculative trading is still to be seen," he adds.
Demand for the companys identity preserved, certified non-GM, full-fat soya has doubled in the past year. It commands an 18% premium over the standard product, about £25-£35/t, and now makes up 12-13% of soya sales at Cherwell Valley. Mr Mills reckons that could reach 15-20% by next April, but does not anticipate non-GM premiums increasing.
"Premiums might even ease off a little as more becomes available. A smoother supply would reduce storage premiums." Based on the current premiums for GM-free soya UK pulses may justify up to a 15% premium over historic values.
Supplies of non-GM soya look set to rise if the efforts of the recently formed International Retail Consortium (News, Apr 16) are successful. It includes UK supermarkets Sainsbury and Marks and Spencer and has contacted key players in the North and South American soya industry to stimulate supplies of non-GM soya.
"It is probably too late to increase non-GM production this summer," says Chris Brown, M&Ss livestock specialist involved in the consortium. But it is hoped to encourage the supply chain to maintain GM-free identity where possible.
"We have contacted everybody that is involved. But the problem is growers will probably have already ordered their seed," he notes.
Soya plantings in the US are expected to be 55% GM material this spring, up from last years 30%, says the American Soya Bean Associations western Europe director, Joseph Zak.
Canada can supply identity preserved, non-GM soya that is traceable back to a farm where no GM crops are grown. But Canada produces a very small amount of beans, and no 100% GM-free beans will come from the US, stresses Mr Zak.
"There is no such thing as US GM-free. The retail consortium wont get that guarantee. They have agreed to accept a level of tolerance of co-mingling, but we do not know at what level yet," he adds.
South American soya cannot be guaranteed as GM free either, he notes. Despite no GM crops officially being grown in Brazil for last harvest, the country imports US and Argentine soya, much of which is modified, he says.
Such constraints on GM-free soya supply offer UK pulse growers a great opportunity, says Geoffrey Gent of the Pulse Growers Research Organisation.
Human consumption markets for peas in particular could benefit as food manufacturers replace soya flour with pea flour.
"I know of a number of people who are looking to remove soya from ingredients due to the GM debate. Peas and beans have an obvious use as an alternative to soya. But it is all price sensitive," he adds. *
PULSE PROMISE
• GM-free protein = opportunity for UK pulses.
• Causing rally in new crop pulse prices.
• Many pig & poultry rations impossible with pulse-only protein.
• 15% premium possible.
• Supply of identity preserved soya set to rise.
• Premiums short-lived if GM-free soya supply stimulated?
• k 0.5m study into pea and bean use in EUunderway.