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IGC coarse grain forecast unchanged

- 24 June 1999
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By FWi staff


DESPITE a number of revisions by several countries, the forecast for world production of coarse grains has remains unchanged at 876 million tonnes, according to the International Grains Council (IGC).


The output of maize has been put higher in the USA and China, although slightly lower in Indonesia. Reductions have been made to barley forecasts for Russia, Ukraine and Australia, noted the IGC.


But as coarse grains are mainly spring-sown crops in several major producing regions, it is still somewhat early to assess the likely volume of output, said a spokesman for the IGC.


World trade is expected to be 2m tonnes higher at 96m tonnes, on the back of larger purchases of maize and sorghum by Mexico.


Korea is also likely to increase imports of maize instead of feed wheat over the coming season.
World estimates – coarse grain
  96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 (forecast as at 26/05/99) 99-00 (forecast as at 23/06/99)
Production 914 894 887 876 876
Trade 92 88 94 94 96
Consumption 881 885 879 879 875
Stocks 124 133 141 136 142


But, despite an increase in trade, world consumption is expected to decline by 4 million at 875m tonnes on the back of lower production in Russia, resulting in decreased feed use.


Attractively priced soyameal could, to a limited extent, displace grains in compound feeds in the US, noted the IGC.


Following these changes, and also reflecting the increase of expected supplies in the US world stocks are also expected to increase, by 6 million to 142m tonnes .


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