One in five Scots to leave land

By FWi staff

SCOTLANDS farmers believe their numbers will fall by about one-fifth in the coming five years.

In the annual survey of Scottish agriculture, conducted by Lloyds TSB, the 500 farmers who responded said they expected there to be 17% fewer farms in the next five years.

That figure is backed up by the fact that 23% said they planned to retire within that time, with 42% having no successor in place.

A further quarter intends to retire within five to 10 years, says Donald MacRae, senior agricultural economist with Lloyds TSB Scotland.

But farmers are a little more optimistic about the future, with almost half saying they expect their business to be profitable in the current financial year.

That compares with a figure of 39% when the same question was asked the previous year.

Although only four out of 10 farmers reported pre-tax profits that exceeded their personal drawings in the last financial year, they still plan a marked increase in investment in 2001, especially when it comes to land and milk quota.

“This is the first sign we have seen in three years that some optimism is returning,” says Prof MacRae.

Almost three-quarters said substantial CAP reform was needed for the long-term future of Scottish agriculture, compared with two-thirds the previous year.

Prof MacRae adds that about 20% of farmers favour moving to a free, unsubsidised market.