Editor’s View: One card left to play in farming’s IHT fight
© Phil Weedon This week marks a year since farmers brought Westminster to a standstill with the first of the big demonstrations against the proposed changes to inheritance tax (IHT).
Farmers, JCBs and a Limousin heifer returned this week to make the point that the fight goes on and there’ll be more there on Budget day next Wednesday.
That makes it a year of marching, horn honking, letter-writing, lobbying and long talks late into the night about what else can be done.
See also: Vicky the cow leads last-minute IHT fight in Westminster
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A year of disbelief that turned to anger at facts being ignored and proffered solutions rejected – even ones that would have raised more tax.
A year of relentless activity for established farming organisations and the new protest groups that continue to bubble up (and apparently submerge, in the case of Farmers To Action).
A year of four- and five-figure sums spent on business advisers and accountants, while wondering if the circumstances were yet to change.
And at its heart, a year of gnawing anxiety for many about the personal consequences to their own family and business as well as for the industry at large.
Since November 2024, the circumstances have changed. Just not enough. Here are the positives:
First, opposition parties have rallied around our sector, and rural seats will be a key battleground at the next election.
Many more are likely to be in play as Labour appear to be toast and Reform UK are set to split the Tory vote.
This means there will need to be a strong offer from all parties to tempt farmers into placing a mark in their box.
We’ll have a better sense of how this may pan out in rural seats after the May 2026 elections in Wales and Scotland.
Second, backbench Labour unrest about the underperformance of the government generally and specifically on this issue is continuing to mount.
I’m told an experienced Labour MP has agreed to propose one or more amendments to the IHT elements of the Finance Bill when it comes before Parliament at some point after the Budget.
This represents the last possible moment that a change can be made prior to the proposals being implemented in April next year.
Support
There is cautious optimism that these will attract significant support from other Labour MPs, including the members of the sympathetic Labour Rural Research Group, which this week issued its strongest public condemnation of the changes to date.
There aren’t the numbers to defeat the government at this stage, but potentially enough to prompt an 11th-hour rethink to avoid the embarrassment of a large rebellion.
The patient work of persuading each Labour MP that this is a fight worth having with their party is not to be underestimated.
And it is cheering that the work continues at a time when critics and rebels feel emboldened by prime minister Sir Keir Starmer’s weakness.
Yet, for all these crumbs of comfort, the most likely outcome is that the Treasury blindly presses on.
If it does, the fallout will be far from the door of Number 11. It will be felt around kitchen tables, at hospital beds, and ringside at dispersal sales.
But it will also be felt at the ballot box.