Research warns of climate change

17 March 2000



Research warns of climate change

FARMERS have told to prepare for climate changes that will bring hotter weather and possibly higher rainfall in the coming decades.

A new MAFF-funded report based on 6m of research tells to learn about changes in temperature, rainfall and CO2 levels and adapt to them.

The past decade has been the warmest on record for over 300 years and 0.5C warmer than the average 1961-90 climate.

This trend looks certain to continue with temperatures in Britain expected to be about 1-2C warmer by the 2050s.

Global warming, caused by the release of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous dioxide, into the atmosphere, is behind the changes.

CO2 emissions, the biggest factor will continue to rise so that by 2050 levels will be 450-600 parts per million by volume, compared with 360 ppm now.

Rainfall levels will also change, with “modest” increases expected
and an increased likelihood of intense rainstorms.

“These changes present opportunities and threats to farmers”, said contributing author Professor Thomas Downing, of Oxford University.

Crops such as maize and sunflowers may increasingly penetrate southern UK while current crops may move northward.

Yields will also be affected, although the report predicts the negative effect of increased temperature will be cancelled out by the positive effect of CO2.

Among the threats are the uncertainty caused by increasing variation in weather patterns and an increased risk of disease in some cases.