Somethings got to give…

THE autumn PK market, such as it is, rumbles on quietly and nitrogen continues to trickle onto farm around £85-87 delivered. “We must”, say the manufacturers, “have really hit the bottom now!”

This is, of course, good news for farmers who can reasonably expect these current ultra low prices to continue until “something happens.”

The point about this European, if not global, fertiliser business is that if the bottom has truly been reached, then something will happen. Someone, somewhere will close down and capacity will leave the industry.

Already, on a European scale all the major manufacturers have tweaked production to some extent by shutting down minor plant. This hasnt happened yet in the UK but is always an option.

The scale of the situation is that within Europe, which is a market of 12m tonnes of nitrogen, there is an excess capacity of 2m tonnes. Thats actual N, not product, so taking compounds and nitrogen together as containing, on average, 25% N, this translates to an excess of 8m tonnes of fertiliser.

Hydro and Kemira continue to assert their continuing interest in agriculture, including plant nutrients. Conversely, IFI, Terra, DSM and GP amongst others have either in the past or are currently expressing a wish to leave the fertiliser industry.

Clearly, something must give and if the market has truly bottomed out it will be soon.
Meanwhile, fertiliser prices on farm have rarely been keener.

CURRENT MARKETS

























Immediate delivery N

Post-harvest delivery N

September delivery N

Imported urea

Imported N deliver December

Imported 0.26.26

Domestic 0.24.24 blended
Liquid N, 37kg/100l or 29.6% N/t

£85

£87-89 dependent on month

£90

£93 granular/
£85 prilled

£73

£120

£112-116

£95/100,000 litres or £76/t


 

IRELAND

No urea market at present
















 
Imported CAN

CAN


27.6.6 complex


25.5.5 complex


24.6.12 complex


Northern Ireland

85

85

122

112

120














 

CAN


27.21/2.5


18.6.12


10.10.20


Republic of Ireland*

100-104

140-145

No market

No market


*Note in the Republic of Ireland nutrients are expressed as elements not oxides. Analyses will not be directly comparable with those used in the UK..

*Prices in the Republic are IR£

 

FORTHCOMING MARKETS

Anticipated general prices post-harvest
















N/S (High S)

N/S (Low S)

TSP (47% P2O5)

Muriate of Potash (60% K2O)

PK 0.24.24

91

91

130

117

120


 

BACKGROUND MARKET

Products not currently traded in volume.

Some spot business in grass sectors.



























 

20.10.10 and 25.5.5 complex/blend*

KN

KNS

20.5.15

England/Wales Grassland Markets

100-105/95-100

90-95

90-95

90-95

England Arable Markets

No Market

93-96

93-96

93-96

Scotland

108-112/103-108

90-95

90-95

90-95

*Complex fertilisers are those where typically all nutrients are combined in one granule.








15.15.20

17.17.17

£128

£130-135

Note All illustrated prices are based upon 20-tonne loads for immediate payment. Prices for smaller loads and those with credit terms will vary considerably.

Source: Bridgewater Associates

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