Soya prices lower, but for how long?

By Olivia Cooper

SOYA prices have fallen 10-15 since the middle of June, but traders say this is the bottom and farmers should buy before the market goes up.

US soya markets have been extremely volatile during the critical pod-filling period, where yields are made or lost.

The US crop is now 94% pod-set, meaning the weather will have little effect on yield from now on. Production is likely to be higher than first predicted, due to recent beneficial rains.

This has pushed prices down, along with pressure from the $60/t (41/t) drop in value since the beginning of August of the main competitor, Malaysian palm oil.

Sterling has also strengthened by 6% against the $ since mid-June, making imports cheaper by roughly 6/t.

HiPro is now worth 156-162/t ex-store, which equates to about 161-167/t delivered.

Many traders feel that this is the base of the soya market, as worldwide supply is restricted, in spite of record soya crops in the US and Brazil.

In the short term the market may respond to bearish news, but with an overall bullish opinion, our advice has to be to continue to buy the dips, says Banks Cargill.

Supplies of rapemeal are tight, with the French crop predicted to be 700,000t down on last year and the Ukrainian sunflower crop 500,000t down.

Genetically modified rapeseed in Canada is vastly reduced at 4.7m tonnes, down from last years 7.2m tonnes.

The 30% decrease in exports from the worlds largest exporter will have a significant impact on world prices, says the HGCA.

BOCM Pauls expects superstraights Rapepro and Rapetec to decrease in price this week, with Rapepro already weaker at 130-140/t Oct-Dec.