World coarse grain estimates down 2m tonnes

By FWi staff

WORLD production of coarse grains is expected to be 2 million lower, at 880m tonnes, this year on the back of smaller estimates for the USA and Ukraine, according to the International Grains Council.

World estimates – coarse grain
  96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 (forecast as at 25/08/99) 99-00 (forecast as at 29/09/99)
Production 914 895 897 882 880
Trade 92 88 96 98 98
Consumption 881 885 879 878 878
Stocks 124 134 151 148 154

These drops have offset any rises forecast to come out of Brazil.

“At this level, output would be 17m below the revised total of 897m for last season,” notes the IGC in its monthly report.

“The latter figure was increased to take account of a higher official estimate for the 1998 maize crop in China, now put at 133m, against 124 m previously.”

World trade has been adjusted upward by 2m tonnes at 98m tonnes. This season demand has been strong for feed barley, with present prices fast approaching some classes of milling wheat, noted the IGC.

World consumption has remained unchanged at 878m tonnes. Total use in the USA is projected slightly lower, but could still set a new record, said the IGC.

It is thought the use of barley in the EC could be lower as a result of cheap feed wheat and maize in feed rations.

World stocks are not expected to be as high as originally thought last month although they are still forecast to rise by 3m tonnes to 154m tonnes.

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