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World wheat stable despite US futures flurry

- 29 April 1999
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By FWi staff


WEATHER has been the major influence on US grain futures over the past month, although this had little effect on world wheat.


The International Grains Council (IGC) has made only minor revisions to world wheat estimates, with the most important change coming from coarse grains as consumption estimates plummet by 10 million tonnes.


This results mainly from lower estimates for Brazil, the EU, Russia and the United States raising world stocks by 5 million at 144 million tonnes, notes the IGC.


World trade remains unchanged, forecast to rise by 6 million to 99 million tonnes. Higher imports are expected to Iran, China and Pakistan.


World stocks are expected to rise 6 million to 111 million tonnes on the back of lower consumption. This is forecast to fall 4 million to 588 million tonnes but would still leave stocks 18 million tonnes below last years levels.
World estimates – wheat
  95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 (forecast as at 25/03/99) 98-99 (forecast as at 28/04/99)
Production 540 582 610 583 584
Trade 90 95 95 93 93
Consumption 551 582 590 586 586
Stocks 111 110 130 129 129


However, despite this reduction in world stocks the IGC expects the major exporting country stocks to rise 5 million to 57 million tonnes.

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