Food for Thought

Gordon (Brown)’s hastily convened gathering of the great and good from the food industry could have big implications for farmers.

Before the meeting had even taken place the 10 Downing Street website signalled that biofuels were in the firing line.

The UK needs to be “more selective” in its support of biofuels, taking greater account of impacts on food prices and the environment, it signalled as news of the summit meeting with scientists, supermarkets, farmers and aid agencies started to filter out.

A SILENT tsunami of food shortages is sweeping the world. And it could have an overwhelmingly greater impact on world trade than the much-hyped credit crunch.

As this wave of food price inflation moves around the world it is leaving riots and shaken governments in its wake.

Nobody is immune. In poor countries meat and vegetables are being foregone, so a bowl of rice can be bought. In developing countries health care spending is cut, so families can have three meals a day. In developed countries consumer spending is under pressure as food bills take more of the household budget, reported The Economist last week.

Last night I managed to acquire a ticket for an event described by its promoters as “and all-American sport” and described by my hotel porter as “a buncha hollerin’ red-necks an’ their machines”.

The West Coast Tractor Pull Finals had been advertised at the World Ag Expo here in California all week, and having seen some of the monster tractors at the show, I felt I had to go along to the finals to see them in action.

Every time I come to America I’m amazed by how big everything is.

I’ve just arrived in Los Angeles to attend the 41st annual World Ag Expo next week, and it seems as though in California, size really does matter.

From the six-lane highways jam-packed with 4x4s, to the huge portions of food and the whopping-waisted locals I spotted from the taxi on the way to my hotel, everything seems to come in one size only – super size.

But the thing that surprised me the most was when I was in the aeroplane heading towards LA.

We had been flying over ice and snow for hours when the barren landscape suddenly became an enormous patchwork of ploughed land.

I’ve seen photos of up to a dozen tractors working a field at once, But I’d never realised how vast farmland in America can be compared to the UK - villages looked like specks next to fields which stretched over hundreds of acres.

California is key to the United State's agricultural industry. Farmers here produce more than half of the country’s fruit, vegetables and nuts on 100m acres of farmland, and about 25% of the state’s income comes from livestock.

Next week I’m hoping to meet some of the state’s 77,000 farmers. I’ll be visiting dairy units, looking at America’s biofuels industry and talking to farmers about the things affecting their farm businesses.

I’ll let you know what I get up to and who I meet on this blog, but in the meantime if there are things you’d like me to ask the people I meet, leave a comment below or email me.

Caroline Stocks - Business reporter

Ian Ashbridge hears from this year's Sentry Farming Conference

The key factor in demand for raw agricultural commodities worldwide will be how quickly the most deprived people in the world are lifted from poverty.

Nearly 1bn people in the world today suffer hunger or malnutrition, and yet the world's population is expected to reach 9bn by 2050, when most people will no longer live outside urban areas.

Professor Robert Thompson of the University of Illinois, believes that raising people's spending on food above $2/day will see huge demand for agricultural commodities.

He estimates that when populations gain enough wealth to spend between $2-$10 a day, they upgrade their diets to demand more meat, fish and dairy products.

Speaking by live video link from Chicago, he told farmers and rural business advisers at this year's Sentry conference that the next great leap in demand for food will come come by 2050.

Geneva, Switzerland

"I can't leave you with with too strong an impression that volatility in the grain markets will be acute and you will see markets like you've never seen before."

Such were the reassuring words of one of the world's leading grain market analysts here today. Dan Basse is a regular contributor to the Global Grain conferences and, as president of Chicago's AgResource forecasting firm, you'd expect him to know.

Whilst recently on holiday in Vietnam I saw this unusual sight.

These cows were seen being driven into the Red River for their daily swim across to the other side which must have been at least half a mile.

A calf was spotted later pondering how to get the coracle the right way up!

The Soil Association has today announced the outcome of its consultation on whether it should stop certifying organic food that has been air-freighted to the UK.

It has concluded that a complete ban would be inappropriate because it would impact too harshly on farmers in developing countries. However, the rules will get tighter - if food is to be certified in the future it must meet the SA's Ethical Trade standards.

The decision is a compromise - but is it a good one?

The Soil Association was founded in 1946 by a group of farmers, scientists and nutritionists who observed a direct connection between farming practice and plant, animal, human and environmental health.

They were people who felt strongly that their lives - and the environment - would be improved if they farmed and ate in a way that didn't involve inorganic fertilisers, antibiotics and pesticides.

But you only have to take a look at the SA's website to realise that things have become much more complicated than that today. The organisation is still campaigning on all the old issues - but its efforts also include food miles, school meals and the power of agribusiness.

Looking at its heritage, you could argue that as one of the UK's leading environmental charities it should have gone for a complete ban. Air-freighting food is polluting and contributes to global warming.

But it hasn't. Which leads me to ask: Is the Soil Association now an ethical charity or an environmental one?

Would you like to farm in the US? Do you reckon you would escape the red tape and stress that seems to bind UK food producers?

Well, this piece written by a regular contributor to the FWiSpace dicussion forums rather suggests that you'd face the same problems as in the UK. As part of the new US Farm Bill, producers look like they will see their support cut and that which is available watered down by wider rural objectives.

As the author says:

Everyone from apple growers to the Sierra Club wants a say in how this bill is crafted, and a substantial share of the money for their particular interests. It surprises many non farmers to learn that the "farm" bill also funds school lunches and food stamps, wildlife habitat, the forestry service (which not only handles forests but does things like provide surplus vehicles to volunteer fire departments) and a variety of rural development projects. The farmer gets the blame, someone else gets the money.

FROM WHERE I STAND…… the babble of an intensely busy airport rises before me. This is Kiev airport, just out of town from the modern city centre (pictured) and it is a definite step into the east. Cyrillic sign-writing is a drastic and baffling departure from Western Europe and flights arriving from Minsk, Tbilisi, Moscow and Kharkov confirm this as a major cross-roads, where east truly does meet west.

So what, you ask? So, big deal. Ukraine stands at the frontier between EU members Poland, Hungary and Romania and the Russian-led Commonwealth of Independent States, stretching east through Belarus, Georgia, Tajikistan and on through Uzbekistan to China.

To the east lie endless tracts of potentially productive land, low cost labour and yet to be awakened economic demand; to the west our high-cost, high-margin homeland. This is where farming in Ukraine comes into its own.

FROM WHERE I STAND….. the flat lands of western Ukraine stretch out before me. And to Ukrainians this farmland matters.

It matters a lot. Seven million fellow countrymen starved to death when Stalin sought social change in 1933, so the land’s productive ability is very close to the hearts of Ukrainian folk.

Golden wheat fields beneath an azure blue sky comprise the national flag[. They reflect this young nation’s status as bread-basket of Europe and the Soviet Union in recent decades.

FROM WHERE I STAND….. I can tell Stepan Otvinovsky is enjoying himself. He is an enthusiastic tractor driver, who works 11 hours a day, driving a brand new 300hp John Deere 8430 with a 6m Horsch cultivator behind.

Stepan is trained, provided with health care and on a significant bonus scheme. He earns £200/month and is thrilled to do so.

Stepan operates in Ukraine, where the average office/factory worker earns around £60/month. Typical living costs, with rural homes costing less than £20,000, are £50/month per person, including food, power and water. Stepan is a happy man.

The big question is whether you’d like Stepan to drive your John Deere. He can turn out 100ha/day discing and cherishes the machine he shares with two fellow drivers as they keep it running 22 hours a day, and 340 days a year, bringing abandoned land back into cultivation.

Another post from Ian Ashbridge on the concept of "peak oil".

Academics, commentators and campaigners are divided over the concept of "peak oil" - the year at which fossil fuels begin to decline rapidly and we are forced to develop new ways of producing energy. Depending on whose figures you believe, oil extraction may have already peaked - it is variously pegged to be between 2005 and 2030.

But one enterprising academic has launched an innovative new research project into exactly how people might cope without fossil fuels.

Posted by Poultry World editor, Richard Allison, in Brazil

After four days in Brazil on a media trip, I finally have onto a poultry site. And the first thing that hits you is the scale of the operation. Huge processing plants purely dedicated to producing chicken for export to Japan, the Middle East and Europe.

Mention Brazilian chicken in the UK and you often hear comments like "they operate to lower welfare standards" and "they don't have the same level of traceability." But the bad news for UK producers is from what I have seen, they are actually going beyond EU standards.

Posted by Poultry World editor, Richard Allison, in Brazil

When travelling across Brazil, the first thing that hits you is the scale of the country. It's roughly the size of Europe and in one state alone there is more than nine million hectares of extensive grassland ripe for cropping.

One option mooted is sugar cane for biofuel production. The sector is already planning to expand by at least 50% in the next four years.

So in the middle of my poultry schedule, I managed to catch up with Federique Rose e Abreu, the government official responsible for co-ordinating the Brazilian biofuel sector. I wanted to find out whether this expansion would have an impact on UK feed prices via soaring world grain prices.

Posted by Poultry World editor, Richard Allison, in Brazil

Well after what seemed like a days on a plane, I've made it to the world's fourth largest city, Sao Paulo. At the centre of this city of 30 million people, is the head office of the Brazilian Poultry Exporters Association (ABEF).

The first thing that strikes is how much the Brazilian government is helping the poultry sector to succeed, by part funding an new initiative to boost the image of Brazilian chicken.

My visit marks the start of a new era as the Brazilian industry looks to reach out to UK and EU consumers. I'm part of the first wave of journalists invited to visit poultry units.

Within the next two weeks, chairman of the US House of Representatives agriculture committee, Collin Peterson, will table the first draft of a new US Farm Bill. It will provide the first real clues as to what US farm support policy will look like for the next five years - and how much they will spend.

There's still a long way to go. The agriculture committee will have to chew it over, then send it to the whole House for its approval. A similar process will go on in the Senate across the road on Capitol Hill. Only when a single text is agreed between the House and the Senate will it be sent to the Whitehouse for presidential approval. That could take until the end of the year - or longer if President Bush decides to veto it.

One thing that is already clear, however, is that the new Farm Bill will be crafted with US farmers' and ranchers' best interests in mind. While there is a grudging acceptance among congressmen that US farm policy needs to comply with world trade rules, there is no question of them trying to pre-empt the outcome of the Doha Development Round.

That is what the EU did with its 2003 CAP reforms, setting itself a "negotiating mandate" for the WTO. But now everyone wants the EU to go further in opening up markets and reducing producer support.

In contrast, the USA is looking to make only minor changes. It is more interested in keeping domestic farm support compatible with the current WTO agreement, not the next one.

"We want a Farm Bill that will be good for American farmers and ranchers, rather than good for the WTO," Mr Peterson recently told Farmers Weekly in Washington. What a refreshing change to hear politicians who really want to look after their farmers.

I guess we at Farmers Weekly felt pretty confident that we were doing the right thing when our Local Food is Miles Better campaign tried to steer consumers away from food that's been jetted in from the other side of the world - including produce from third world countries.

Henry Fell, chairman of the Commercial Farmers Union, makes an unlikely Cassandra. Remember the mythical Trojan blessed with the gift of prophesy but cursed because no one would believe her? I couldn't help thinking of Cassandra as Henry Fell spoke during the Agricultural Engineers' Association conference in London on Tuesday.

The World Bank wants the US to cut its tariff on ethanol imports: That's the subject of a recent post on Simon Robinson's excellent Big Biofuels Blog, writes FW deputy editor Mike Stones. It refers to mounting pressure on the US to remove its 54 cent per gallon duty imposed on imported ethanaol. Yet US energy secretary Samuel Bodman pledged only recently to retain the duty despite international opposition. "No one in the administration is looking to end the tariff ore subsidy prematurely (certainly not before the end of 2008), " he is reported as saying. So much for free trade in the Land of the Free.

Did you know that today is National Agriculture Day in the US? That may not be remarkable in itself, but here's something that is - there are apparently 22 million people involved in agriculture in the US. Just trying to picture an ag industry that big is pretty mind-boggling. Think of the lobbying power of that many people too.

Ever wondered what farmers in Africa complain about? Well, having worked with both large and small-scale farmers in East Africa, I can tell you it's exactly the same as here - the weather's never right and prices are too low.

There is a big difference of course. If the grain market here slumps, we might have to tighten our belts but our kids won't go hungry.Too much rain in the UK might mean a washed out harvest, but it won't be life or death - in Africa it could mean just that - we've all seen the pictures on the TV.

I'm Farmers Weekly's Business editor and next Friday (16 March), I'll be going back to Africa to visit The Gambia, one of the world's least-developed countries. I'll be looking at a project run by UK charity Concern Universal that aims to create a reliable income for local farmers and provide them with a sustainable future.

I'll also be asking Gambian farmers, politicians and academics how subsidies for farmers in the world's richest countries could be harming those in the poorest.

At last, confirmation that at a diversified farming industry generates a thriving economy - in France at least. It comes from the SIMA Show, Paris, which ends today, out of the mouth of Jean-Paul Papillon of machinery exporters' association SYGMA.
It is France's highly diversified farming structure, spanning large-scale farms in the Paris Basin to the small hill farms of the Massif Central that has encouraged French machinery manufacturers to produce diversified farm equipment, he told me. And that wide range is paying off in terms of rapidly rising export sales.

Time: Yesterday lunchtime.
Location: SIMA show ground, Paris.
Situation: Desperate.

It was no good - I needed sustenance and I needed it quickly. Tired of tramping the 22ha (54 acres) of showground and shouldering my way through the tens of thousands of visitors thronging the machinery and livestock lines, I needed reviving and soon. I found the answer in that classic French dish tartiflette.

FW's deputy machinery editor Charlie (Cathal) McCarron has been chosen as a Nuffield Scholar. Here he gives an account of his trip to Calgary, Alberta which was the venue chosen for this year's Nuffield Scholar International Briefing:

The first thing that strikes me about Canadian farming is the sheer scale and vastness of the land.

Traveling through Alberta was quite an eye opener for myself, particularly so when you consider that when someone is farming a 50ha farm at home, he is the envy of his neighbors indeed.

One of the first tours we experienced was at the Agrium fertilizer plant in Carseland. The company has been doing some development work with a new product known as ESN (Environmentally Sensitive Nitrogen).

The environmental pressures placed on farming today are immense and it seems that Canada is getting about as tough a time as farming in Ireland. We are currently implementing a new nitrates directive at home and ESN could play a role in our fertilizer application in the future.

We were privileged enough to visit a Hutterite Colony farm as part of our tour. The way these people choose to live may well be scorned upon by some people, but there are lessons that we could apply to our own lives.

It was a stark removal from the TV and computer game orientated world we seem to live in these days.

The Colony farm was spotless, the milking parlor was without doubt the cleanest ever encountered by anyone in our group. This was a dairy inspector's dream farm.