As this extraordinary fertiliser year draws to an end, the prospect for what remains of the 2004/05 season is shrouded in uncertainty.

While some prices have been published forward to March, domestic suppliers are hindered by lack of availability. In turn, disbelief at high prices and a fatalistic attitude of “wait and see” by remaining buyers, almost exclusively grassland farmers, has led to little or no current sales at the farm gate.

Unquantified factors in the grass sector, such as the number of herds near to quota, a switch to maize and wholecrop forages and businesses leaving the industry, make the remaining market potential very hard to forecast.

All this leads to a lack of confidence for importers who do not want to bring in cargoes unless they have a ready market, so imports also look to be in short supply.

However, a weak dollar has helped the price of prilled urea to fall back to 165/t, restoring the differential between it and the usually more expensive granular material, now priced at 195/t.

Imported 27.6.6 and 32.5.0. are not priced attractively against domestic supplies and little is planned for shipment.

Even a downturn in the autumn PK fertiliser price has failed to stimulate sales, which are estimated to be 25% below those of last year. Arable farmers are generally more aware that the timing of these applications is not critical, or may be taking a PK holiday at a time of high prices.