OSR area forecast up 10% despite flea beetle and drought
© Tim Scrivener The UK oilseed rape area is predicted to be 10% higher than last year despite the higher cabbage stem flea beetle activity, according to a grower survey.
Bayer’s annual establishment poll saw 230 growers taking part, covering 25,000ha.
The results revealed good establishment this autumn with only just over 6% of this year’s crop likely to be subject of claims in the various breeder schemes.
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Growers rated three-quarters of this season’s crop at 7 or more for establishment, on a scale of 0 (failed) to 10 (perfect establishment), with just 8% rated at less than 5.
“Barring any major winter or early spring issues, these findings point to an overall crop survival to flowering similar to the past two years at about 90% of plantings,” says Bayer seeds campaign manager and poll co-ordinator Lizzie Carr-Archer.
“This is a vast improvement on the 67% survival to spring we recorded in the last particularly challenging establishment season of 2019-20.”
This wasn’t expected as recently as September after such a bone dry summer, she says.
With almost two-thirds of growers reporting very or fairly dry conditions at sowing, and only just over one-third considering them at least reasonable, this year’s poll shows moisture levels at sowing were much worse than 2019.
Flea beetle challenges
Combined with farmers delaying drilling because of the dry conditions, this left many crops open to the late August/early September cabbage stem flea beetle challenge.
Flea beetle pressure was higher than last year, but still below the level of 2019.
But what was important was rainfall after sowing, which she believes is the reason for the good establishment seen this autumn.
So with plantings up 20% on last year, she predicts that coming into spring will be a good 10% up on last spring.
Other findings in the annual establishment poll
- Not surprisingly, the much drier August led to a reversal in the trend towards earlier drilling seen over the past three seasons. Nearly 60% of crops being sown after 20 August, against 45% last autumn.
- Unlike recent years, earlier sown crops didn’t necessarily establish better than those going in at a more traditional late august timing, despite the higher flea beetle pressure.
- Flea beetle pressure continues to have a greater impact on establishment than soil moisture.
- In moisture terms, the amount of rainfall received after sowing has a greater impact on establishment than seed-bed moisture. The difference in average establishment score between extremes was almost twice that between the extremes of moisture at sowing.
- A noticeable gap was evident between hybrids and conventionals – hybrids appeared to cope better with the pressure of less-than-adequate rainfall after sowing.
- The proportion of growers deliberately avoiding insecticide spraying increased slightly 33% to 37% and reason was to make more of beneficials.
