When orders for fertiliser stop flowing in, as is usual during the planting season, the affect of the supply/ demand equation on pricing is tested, writes Roger Chesher. Pressure for prices to fall is heightened when, as is the case this season, there are also indications that plantings are down and therefore fertiliser requirements will be lower.

Oilseed rape area is said to be down 20% this autumn, along with a similar reduction for wheat. Conversely, spring barley and pulse volumes are set to rise with a decrease in the area of potatoes and sugar beet.

With UK fertiliser values still largely set by global pricing these changes are too small to bring prices tumbling down, but they should be enough to halt the upward spiral.

The next available tranche of nitrogen fertiliser from home producer GrowHow will be in January, with prices little changed from last month’s forecast. Imported AN, however, is available today at £355/t and urea prices have come back from £500 to £460-480/t.

Clearly these prices are not tempting enough as farmers are not ordering. Indeed, why bother, as there is little indication of significant change before Christmas.

One much hoped for change is the reduction of phosphate prices in international markets. The F.O.B. price has dropped by as much as $200-300/t, but for those farming in Britain this benefit has been largely negated by the weakness of sterling. Even so, a drop of £20/t to £680/t for TSP is welcome.

Potash prices are much the same, and a typical 0.24.24 autumn grade, the only ones currently selling in any volume, is around £590/t. Globally, pressures are still holding nutrient prices high.

China has managed to hold its domestic urea price to an equivalent of £150/t. But this has been achieved by applying an export tax of 175% leading to little urea being sold outside the country itself.

The Indian government is estimated to have spent only half its budgeted sum for subsidising internal fertiliser purchase. Demand there continues unabated.
No one even dares to speculate what the impact will be of current market crises but there is no reason to assume that the fertiliser industry will be in any way immune.

Great Britain

Straight
Domestic N (34.5%N) SP5	Imported AN  eg Lithuanian	Imported urea	Liquid UAN 37kg N/100litre  (28.8 %N/t)
£410-413 January	Increasing volumes            current price £355	£460-480	£1.19/kg

 

TSP (47%P2O5)	£680 availability OK
Muriate of Potash (60%K2O)	£600

 

Compound
N.P.K	Complex	Blended
25.5.5	£414 Nov	Broadly similar
15.15.20	£ not available	14.14.20 £590
20.10.10 / 27.5.5	£435 if offered	Broadly similar
17.17.17	Outpriced None in production	16.16.16 £560-600
Aftercuts (NK) (with sulphur)		£419
23.4.13.7 Sulphur	£426
Autumn grades (PK)		£500-600. dependant on analysis.

 

Trace elements

Copper, zinc, selenium, cobalt Iodine and sodium £11.80/acre pack

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Ireland (All prices volatile)

	Urea		CAN	25.0.13 aftercut*	27.0.6	27.6.6 complex**
Northern Ireland	No market	Highly volatile spot prices		Highly volatile spot prices	Highly volatile spot prices	No longer used Phosphate regulations
Republic of Ireland†			Highly volatile spot prices	Highly volatile spot prices		No Market.

†Note in the Republic of Ireland nutrients are expressed as elements not oxides.  Analyses will not be directly comparable with those used in the UK.
*Known as 24.2½.10 blend in the Republic of Ireland
**Known as 27.2½.5 in ROI

Note All illustrated prices are based upon 24 tonne loads for immediate payment. Prices for smaller loads and those with credit terms will vary considerably.

Source: Bridgewater