The Russians are coming… to the fert market

THE RUSSIANS are coming – but before that raises a vision of bountiful ultra cheap imports let us not forget that Russian exporters are now just as sophisticated as UK importers.


They will pitch their f.o.b. price closely to that which the UK market will stand.


Ammonium nitrate prices in this country have steadily risen this season according to the classic supply/demand equation, within which feed stock energy prices have this year been the major factor.


Now they have reached a point where Russian exporters can realise an acceptable profit on these shores despite paying the EU import duty of 47€.


The strengthening pound is also in their favour, but there are still more lucrative markets to which they can send their fertiliser.


Brazil, for example, puts an area the size of Wales down to agriculture each year.


Lithuanian AN is currently not available and the limited tonnages of Russian AN now en route should reach farm around £148-150/t.


This might seem expensive, but Terra has announced a wholesale price of £155/t for November, which should translate to farm around £158/t.


This could well mean that the much-vaunted price of £160/t is with us before Christmas.


At that stage the rules of supply and demand may well prevent the manufacturers from recovering excessive gas costs by raising prices, as most players expect price resistance to bite hard at this level.


CURRENT PRICES (£/t)


Great Britain

























Straight


Domestic N (34.5%N) SP5

Nov £157-158

Imported AN 
Lithuanian & Bulgarian


£135 where available


Imported urea



£195 granular
£195 prills (where available)


Liquid UAN
37kg/100litres (29.6%N/t)


No market


TSP (47%P2O5)


£145


Muriate of Potash(60%K2O)


£133



















































Compound


 


Complex


Blended


25.5.5


£148


From £138


15.15.20


£168


 


20.10.10 / 27.5.5


£151


From £140


17.17.17


£173


 


Aftercuts NK


 


£148


27.6.6 (imported)


 


 


32.5.0 (imported)


£136-138

Autumn grades (PK)

 


£133-135
















Trace elements

Copper, zinc, selenium,
cobalt Iodine and sodium

£11.10/acre pack





Ireland







































Straight and compound


 


Northern Ireland


Republic of Ireland†


Urea

No market No market
CAN £132 €162+

24.6.12 aftercut*


No market


No market


25.5.5


£152


 


27.6.6 complex**


£162


€230-245+ (CCF)
€230-235 import blend


Note in the Republic of Ireland nutrients are expressed as elements not oxides.  Analyses will not be directly comparable with those used in the UK.
*Known as 24.2½.10 blend in the Republic of Ireland
**Known as 27.2½.5 in ROI


Note All illustrated prices are based upon 24 tonne loads for immediate payment. Prices for smaller loads and those with credit terms will vary considerably.


Source: Bridgewater



 

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