US maize crop falls again

The US Department of Agriculture has again cut its estimate of maize production in the States, down from 273.8m tonnes last month to 272.5m tonnes today (12 September).

Lower yields and crop abandonment were to blame for the reduced forecast, although markets had already priced in cuts, with analysts’ estimates between 262m tonnes and 275m tonnes.

“The early maturing crop means US farmers had harvested more of the US maize crop than normal before the new-crop season began on 1 September,” said Charlotte Garbutt, senior analyst at the HGCA.

“As a result the USDA has reduced the 2011/12 feed demand figure, which allows more maize to be carried over for use in the 2012/13 season.”

End of season maize stocks were pegged at 18.62m tonnes, 2.11m tonnes more than forecast in August but still 11.4m tonnes lower than 2011/12.

Soyabean production was estimated at 71.69m tonnes, down from 73.27m tonnes last month due to lower yields.

“In other world markets, the main revisions for wheat were in Russia, where production was forecast down by 4m tonnes, to 39m tonnes, in line with other analysts,” said Ms Garbutt.

EU-27 maize production forecasts were also lowered, from 61.54m tonnes to 57.14m tonnes, following drought in central and southern EU countries.

“Southern hemisphere crops start to become a focus at this time of year, as planting progresses in South America and crops develop in Australia.

“Australian wheat forecasts were unchanged at 26m tonnes, while Argentine and Brazilian soyabean estimates were also kept at the same level as August.”


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