Livestock numbers in England show further decline
The total number of beef, sheep and pigs in England fell further last year as the underlying downward trend in breeding numbers continued, provisional DEFRA figures have revealed.
DEFRA’s December survey of agriculture found that the total number of sheep and lambs decreased by 7% from December 2007 to just under 10.3m at the end of 2008, while the total cattle and calves fell 1.8% over the same period to 5.4m.
A 3.9% fall in the breeding flock and 4.6% decline in the dairy herd underpinned the falls and DEFRA said high feed prices last year could explain the drop in dairy herd size.
But Savills agribusiness consultant Ashley Lilley said several other issues were behind the falling stock numbers, not least the impact of TB and the uncertainty and extra cost resulting from new NVZ rules.
“We’re hearing figures of £50,000+ cost for the average dairy business to comply with new slurry storage requirements, which in the absence of any grant funding or tax allowances, will be a big issue” he said.
“The loss of animals to TB is obviously having a direct impact on numbers, but there are also secondary effects.
For example, a lot more farmers are turning to black-and-whites, which is affecting the supply of beef animals coming through.
Some of the store prices we’ve seen recently are astronomical (£1000+), which is causing some to question whether they can make any money.
Loss of cattle to TB was also driving up the cost of replacements at a time when milk prices were falling, he said.
“Normally, replacement costs are linked to dairy profitability, but this doesn’t seem to be the case at the moment. It’s the classic supply and demand scenario being borne out.”
Mr Lilley urged all farmers to go back to basics and examine what they are producing, how much it costs and then decide what they can afford to pay for stock.
On the arable side, the DEFRA census found that the wheat area in December 2008 was 1.6m hectares, 14% below the 1.9m hectares in 2007.
Lower cereal prices, high fertiliser prices and bad weather were cited as reasons for the fall. But DEFRA also acknowledged that 2007 saw a particularly high wheat area due to the removal of set-aside and strong prices at the time.
The 2008 area was, therefore, more consistent with 2004-06.
Regional DEFRA census results for England will be available at www.defra.gov.uk from the beginning of March and full UK results will be published on 12 March.