Great Britain ends milk year with production down 1.5%

Production totalled 12.36bn litres for Great Britain’s 2021/22 milk year, a fall of 1.5% on the previous year.

The milk production year from 1 April 2021 to 31 March 2022 was impacted by rising on-farm input costs.

Milk delivery estimates are calculated using an AHDB survey covering 80% of the total volume supplied to milk buyers. This figure is scaled up using Defra production data.

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Katherine Jack, AHDB senior dairy analyst, said: “Although the season started with a relatively strong spring, numbers started to fall behind year-ago figures around July as production fell swiftly from the peak.

“Production then stayed behind for the rest of the season, as rapidly rising input costs hit farmer margins and restrained yields.”

The number of GB dairy producers dropped by 3.7% year-on-year, according to AHDB estimates, with about 8,000 producers left in the industry in October 2021.

However, the volume of milk produced by farms continues to rise, with the average holding producing more than 1.56m litres a year.

Production for the 2022/23 milk year is forecast at 12.25bn litres, down by 0.9% on 2021/22 levels.

Global milk supplies

The AHDB dairy team estimates global milk supplies will remain flat year-on-year for 2022, at about 295.9bn litres.

World milk supplies increased by 1.4% in 2020 and 0.8% in 2021.

Production is reportedly expected to remain steady in many of the key exporting regions, including New Zealand, the EU and the US.

Analyst Freya Shuttleworth said: “With little growth in global milk supplies, prices will remain supported and have the potential to increase further if demand rises. However, there is some uncertainty around this, as when the large price jumps eventually flow through to consumers this is likely to dampen demand.

“We may also see reduced purchasing as buyers use up some of the security stocks held in response to delivery delays. These factors could slow down further increases in price.”