Beef prices face pressure due to increased cattle supplies

It has been an exceptionally strong year for beef producers, but a temporary surge in finished cattle numbers is starting to weigh on domestic prices.

Finished beef prices slipped back by 60p/kg after peaking at record levels in May, and have since plateaued through much of the summer.

Nevertheless, prices remain 137p/kg higher than this time last year, with GB deadweight steers at 640p/kg on 13 September.

See also: Red meat exports grow 10% in first half of year

A recent flush of finished cattle has pushed GB estimated weekly prime cattle slaughterings to a three-month high of 32,600 head in early September.

Stuart Vile, ruminant manager at Meadow Quality, said there were more cattle available but abattoirs continued to stress that further numbers could be handled, which might indicate good consumer demand.

He added that some beef finishers had been selling cattle earlier as stores rather than fat due to a lack of fodder.

Scottish livestock marketing group Farmstock has reported that cull cows are also coming forward in greater numbers, with prices beginning to come under pressure.

Analysts at Welsh red meat levy body Hybu Cig Cymru (HCC) said: “The combination of sustained higher prices, and winter approaching has likely encouraged an increase in numbers forward.”

Future price support

In the longer term, cattle numbers are expected to remain in relatively tight supply, both in the domestic market and across many of the major beef exporting countries, which should keep prices firm.

Cattle numbers in England dropped to their lowest level on record in Defra’s June census, at 4.9m head, driven in part by a 4% fall in the beef breeding herd.

A smaller breeding herd and fewer youngstock on farm indicate that supplies are likely to remain tight throughout the coming year.

At a global level, Dutch firm DCA Market Intelligence says prices have reached historic highs across all major producing regions, from the US and Europe to South America and Australia.

With this in mind, it will be interesting to see how markets react as demand for beef picks up ahead of Christmas.

Tight Irish beef supplies

Irish beef prices have risen above GB prices for the first time in three years, according to AHDB analysis.

Becky Smith, senior livestock analyst at the AHDB, said: “Both GB and Irish prime cattle prices saw exceptional growth in the early part of 2025.

“GB prices fell away quite steeply and then appear to have stabilised in recent weeks, whereas we have seen smaller falls followed by a price rally in the Irish market.”

Ireland’s food board, Bord Bia, has forecast a 5% fall in Irish cattle supplies in 2025, with fewer cattle expected to come forward for the remainder of the year.

Declan Hanrahan, livestock chairman of the Irish Farmers’ Association, said current beef supplies were falling short of factory demand and could tighten further in the coming weeks.

“A similar supply situation exists in most major beef-producing countries, creating significant opportunities and strong potential for sustained beef prices,” he added.