Strong beef prices fail to prevent falling cattle numbers

Exceptionally strong beef prices throughout the past year were not enough to stem a continued decline in cattle numbers, with UK beef production down by 3.5% in 2025.

Auctioneers, meat processors and farmers discussed the state of the sector at the NFU Conference in Birmingham on 24 February, warning that prices were likely to remain volatile.

Scott Donaldson, managing director of auctioneer Harrison & Hetherington, said: “Twelve months of record prices do not mask the fall in livestock across the country, especially on hills.

See also: Red meat and dairy enjoy record year for exports

“Suckler cows and sheep on hills are disappearing fast. The industry is enjoying fantastic returns for their livestock but the numbers are falling and that is what we have to address.”

Deadweight beef prices continue to trade between 630p/kg and 650p/kg, with domestic cattle supplies already tight and set to remain so.

Laurie Ibbotson, assistant managing director at the processor Dovecote Park, said price volatility certainly had not helped in terms of contracts with customers, with everyone concerned about where supply was coming from.

She noted that there were declining cattle numbers both in the UK and globally.

Ms Ibbotson added that in May last year prices had gone above £7/kg for the first time, and volumes hadn’t declined by as much as expected.

“How do you know in 12 or 18 months what the finished price is going to be?” she said.

“Some of the cattle bought today are going to have to be facing deadweight prices that we’ve never seen before.”

She questioned margins for store cattle at current prices, with no guarantee that future finished prices would be high enough to leave a sufficient return for producers.

Looking ahead, Ms Ibbotson suggested there was further future uncertainty in terms of livestock numbers.

Rebuilding suckler herd

Mr Donaldson said it was only in the past 18 months that suckler cows had started to pay, after years of losing money.

“If you want to go and buy a heifer and calf, she’s going to cost you £4,000; if you want a good one it’s £5,000. Now [in comparison] the price of calves doesn’t actually look too dear,” he said.

Growing the suckler herd is the obvious place to go in order to increase future cattle supplies, according to NFU livestock board chair David Barton.

“I think the dairy beef sector has done a really good job, and there’s a little bit more to squeeze there,” said Mr Barton.

“We must grasp the opportunity and produce more and stop the decline in our herds.”

Tom Finn, chief executive at Kepak, called for legislation in England and a policy framework to support the suckler herd, as seen in some of the devolved nations.

He said: “Meat production is long-term; It’s looking three to five years out and the problem in the sector is the confidence is not there to invest long-term.

“We’re at the highest prices probably in the world in the UK and have the best farmers, but our herds are declining.”