Summer nerves see beef price fall to 480p/kg deadweight

Processor beef prices fell by 2-4p/kg deadweight this week for many, sparking debate about abattoir kill days, autumn supply and consumer behaviour.

Trade sources believe farmers will resist the temptation to panic sell, now that many herds have finally been turned out and field work is getting done.

See also: Find the latest cattle deadweight prices here

This leaves the base price around the 480p/kg deadweight mark after consecutive weeks of cuts, and some Angus premiums well short of 500p/kg deadweight.

As a result, a 360kg carcass is worth about £50 less than a year ago, which could explain some store cattle markets reporting a slight easing in trade.

Latest Defra slaughter figures for March suggest beef remains tight, with a 5,000-head drop in prime cattle killings reported for the year. This was driven by a 5.37% drop in steer numbers.

More recently, estimated GB prime cattle slaughter fell by 700 head to 34,000 for the week ending 4 May. 

Why the drop?

One source said the price was unlikely to fall much further, given the availability of cattle across Europe.

They said some price cuts could be tactical, designed to put a lid on prices ahead of a feared 5% drop in weekly prime cattle volumes later this year.

This follows a contraction in 2022 of about 51,000 head in suckler calves recorded on the British Cattle Movement Service system.

Another source said the fixed costs and tight margins abattoirs were facing meant it was “crunch time” – either processors needed to pay farmers more to kill five days a week, or control the price with four kill days a week.

Price outlook

Higher price (bullish factors)

  • The Euro 2024 football competition is tipped to drive consumer demand for grilling products
  • Irish beef production, of which 43% was shipped to the UK in 2022, contracted 4.5% last year and is forecast to contract a further 4% this year
  • The Irish beef price differential has shrunk – only 40p/kg dw less than the UK price, making it less competitive

Lower price (bearish factors)

  • Very little “barbecue weather” in the forecast
  • Volumes of tariff-free Australian beef more than doubled 2023 levels to 43,333t this year. Last year non-EU imports amounted to 34,244t.