UK pig herd set to grow despite fewer abattoirs remaining

The UK breeding pig herd is projected to reach 337,000 head by June 2025 as it continues to expand year-on-year.

Pigmeat production is also forecast to grow.

The AHDB projects that volumes will increase by 3.3% year-on-year, to just shy of 1m tonnes in 2025.

During the first quarter of 2025, UK pigmeat production was already 6.4% higher on the year, and further increases are expected during the second quarter.

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This increase has been driven by a combination of higher throughputs of clean pigs and higher average carcass weights – a trend that is set to continue.

Freya Shuttleworth, senior livestock analyst at the AHDB, said: “Longer term, numbers may stabilise as supply finds a balance with processing capacity.”

Ms Shuttleworth added that the number of pig abattoirs in England had fallen to 81, with 13 premises closing in the past five years, including four specialist facilities.

Margins on farm    

The GB (EU-spec) deadweight standard pig price averaged 206.2p/kg for the week ending 17 May.

Prices have been trending roughly 5p/kg below this time last year, but a small margin remains for producers.

The full cost of production increased by 6p/kg to 197p/kg during the first quarter of 2025, leaving an average margin of £1/head for finished pigs.

Jess Corsair, senior economist at the AHDB, said: “Feed costs have risen this quarter and now make up an estimated 62% of total costs, which is an increase of around 3p/kg.

“This rise in feed costs contributes to the majority of the rise in cost of production.

“However, other costs such as breeding, straw and bedding, and energy costs have also risen slightly this quarter.

“Fuel costs and interest rates have decreased this quarter, but have been offset by the other increased costs.”

Global picture

Research by global agricultural banking group Rabobank forecasts that retaliatory tariffs on US pork could redirect exports away from China and benefit exporters in Europe and Brazil.

Its latest quarterly global pork report anticipates global trade disruption.

It warns that diseases such as foot-and-mouth, porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome, and African swine fever will all continue to impact markets.