UK pig sector set for expansion as profit margins improve

Lower production costs and consistent farmgate prices in 2025 have helped to restore confidence in the UK pig sector.

The latest industry outlook by AHDB anticipates UK pigmeat production to increase by 2.8% to 988,000t in 2025, with further expansion forecast in 2026.

This increase in production has ensued from higher carcass weights at abattoirs and a greater number of finished pigs coming forward, following the steady rebuilding of the female breeding herd.

See also: Meat sector concerned over access to skilled workers

Breeding pig numbers are estimated to have increased by 3% to 337,000 head as of June 2025, with further increases expected in 2026 and 2027.

Freya Shuttleworth, senior livestock analyst at AHDB, said: “Overall pigmeat production growth will be driven by clean pig kill, which we forecast to total 10.57m head, up 2.3% annually.

“Carcass weights are expected to average around 90.5kg, half a kilogram higher than 2024.”

The levy board also projects export volumes to grow by 5% in 2025, while import volumes are due to decline marginally on the year.

Ms Shuttleworth added that the UK pig industry was demonstrating its resilience and seizing every opportunity available, such as additional shipments to China.

Finished pig prices

The EU-spec standard pig price (SPP) rose slightly to 208.1p/kg deadweight in the week to 2 August.

Prices have remained within the same 5p/kg price range since the start of the year and have benefited from strong retail demand.

“High beef prices are proving beneficial to pigmeat consumption both domestically and globally, and this is a trend we expect to continue for the rest of the year,” said Ms Shuttleworth.

“This is likely to keep prices balanced through the remainder of the year, with the potential for uplifts ahead of Christmas, as seasonal demand for pork products picks up.”

Cost of production

Margins have improved on farm with the full economic cost of production dropping to 197p/kg deadweight during the second quarter of 2025.

This represents a margin of roughly 10p/kg deadweight, the equivalent to about £8 per slaughter pig based on current prices.

Jess Corsair, senior economist at the AHDB, said: “Feed costs have declined this quarter and now make up an estimated 61% of total costs, with a decrease of around 7p/kg.

“This reduction in feed costs contributes to the majority of the changes in cost of production.

“Finance costs and fuel prices have fallen this quarter; however, this has been offset by an increase in labour costs.”

European market

Pig prices across mainland Europe have remained firm, with markets staying well supported since the beginning of the year.

European prices are currently at a high by global standards, which has resulted in EU pigmeat being less competitive by global standards and fewer export opportunities.

The EU Commission is anticipating a year-on-year decline of 3% for exports, with less product being sent to China and the UK.

Meanwhile, imports are due to increase by 1% on the year during 2025, but are forecast to decline in 2026.

The EU short-term outlook expects overall pigmeat production to remain relatively stable overall in 2025.

However, a declining EU breeding sow herd is likely to limit the number of pigs finishing in the latter half of the year, potentially tightening supplies.