AHDB Horizon report gives agriculture market outlooks for 2019

AHDB’s latest Horizon report – Agri-market Outlook – considers production and trade prospects for each sector and assumes a trade deal will be done with the EU.

The levy body suggests the publication can be used by farmers and growers to plan their businesses or to better understand the dynamics of their allied industries.

Sector outlook points include:

Dairy Downward pressure on prices from December, opportunities to reinvigorate interest in dairy among younger consumers.

Pork Rising production in 2019, but UK supply looks stable as imports set to fall and exports to grow.

Beef Continued UK breeding herd contraction, lower supply including from Ireland, but possible threat from higher Polish beef exports to UK.

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Lamb Similar-size lamb crop expected in 2019 to 2018’s, both globally and in UK. Domestic supply returning to more typical seasonal pattern.

Cereals Tight supply of both wheat and barley – higher animal feed use expected, but lower biofuel demand. Brexit aside, price outlook uncertain because of competitively priced maize.

Oilseeds While UK supply looks tight, political and global factors dominate in this market. Record global oilseeds stocks and the US-China trade measures have kept a lid on global oilseeds markets, but the AHDB warns the background is volatile and conditions could change quickly.

Potatoes Delayed planting and a 4% drop in planted area mean supply is looking tight for the remainder of the current season, with Scottish yields better than much of the rest of GB. Despite long-term pressure from competing carbohydrates, consumers bought 1.1% more potatoes in the year to the end of May 2018.

The report also highlights the importance of changing consumers trends, particularly among younger consumers.

The full report can be downloaded from the AHDB website.