Two more cows a herd a year could plug beef supply gap

Scottish red meat levy body Quality Meat Scotland (QMS) has suggested that an extra two cows a herd a year could help plug a supply gap and help fulfil domestic demand for beef.

According to its latest economic modelling on anticipated future domestic demand, by 2030, the UK would need to produce 278,000t of beef on top of what it is currently projected to produce to be fully self-sufficient.

QMS said that this presents a major challenge as domestic production is projected to decline by 8% from 2023 levels, while the UK population is set to grow by nearly 5% over the same period.

See also: 10-year vision for beef industry aims to increase production

For Scotland to bridge the gap would require an additional 22,000t of beef, and about 79,000 additional cows at the current national average reproduction rate.

“Our evidence centre points to a clear growth opportunity by servicing domestic demand which, if we don’t seize, others certainly will through imports,” said Kate Rowell, chairman of QMS.

“We want the Scottish herd to grow by close to 80,000 cattle when compared to our projections, which, when viewed at an individual farm level, translates to an attainable ‘couple more cows per herd each year’,” she added.

Economic opportunity

Predicted demand for beef presents an economic opportunity for Scottish producers.

QMS modelling suggests it could generate an additional £281m in output and contribute £76m in gross value added (GVA) to the Scottish economy.

Alan Brown, president of the Scottish Association of Meat Wholesalers (SAMW) also emphasised the untapped economic potential of the Scotch beef supply chain.

“Scotland’s red meat processing sector already generates over £1bn annually and supports more than 3,000 jobs,” he said.  

“With the right government support, we could achieve even more.”  

Industry pressures

With the decline in the beef herd, Scottish meat processors are currently operating at only 70% capacity, with weekly production down 9% over the past four years alone, said SAMW.

Reversing this decline will take at least three years of dedicated on-farm breeding and production to stabilise the current situation, the association added.

QMS also stressed that the widening gap between UK supply and demand will lead to significant increases in net imports from elsewhere, projected to be 124,000t higher in 2030 compared to 2023.

However, as climate change affects major beef-producing nations, the UK faces increasing risks to food security, and a rise in global demand for UK beef could further exacerbate supply issues domestically.

With the UK already a net importer of beef, requiring 154,000t in 2023 and an estimated 164,000t in 2024, the projected 278,000t shortfall by 2030 is a considerable increase on 2023 levels.

Compared to 2023, it would be 81% higher, while it would be up by 69% on 2024. 

“It would be utterly perverse from a security, quality and environmental perspective to risk losing a critical part of our national food system and accept an increase in overseas red meat imports,” added Ms Rowell.

Rather than backing sustainable domestic production and prioritising the rebuilding of Scotland’s national herd, government policies have increased reliance on imported beef to feed the nation, added SAMW.  

“Relying on imported beef to meet consumer demand while ignoring its true environmental cost is not just disingenuous – it’s harmful,” said Mr Brown.