Direct subsidies to UK farmers are likely to be worth 25% less in real terms by 2019 than in 2013, warns Professor John Nix in his latest Pocketbook.
Revenue from the market and income from diversification will therefore become increasingly important as will cost control, he says in his foreword.
The reduction in subsidy is likely to be gradual for most, but much sharper for intensive farmers in Wales and Scotland, warns consultant Andersons, which compiles the annual publication.
The firm’s Loam Farm model received £213/ha in SFP in 2013 and the likely reduction will take the same farm’s Basic Payment Scheme payment down to £160/ha for 2019. The calculations were done using a modest inflation assumption of 2% to 2.5%, said the firm’s Graham Redman.
Published this week, the book describes the BPS in practical terms for England, Scotland and Wales.
It predicts that this year, marrowfat peas will show the highest broad-acre combinable crop gross margin, with beans not far behind.
It also considers management techniques to tackle the rise in persistent grassweeds such as blackgrass and sterile brome.
There is also a new section focusing in more depth on agrichemical input per crop. This breaks down agrichemical product types for each crop allowing clearer interpretation of the gross margin figures, said Andersons.
There is also help for growers with assessing the benefits of precision farming techniques.
Example pages from The John Nix Farm Management Pocketbook can be downloaded from the Pocketbook website. Order copies online or by phone on 01664 564 508. The paperback Pocketbook costs £24 plus p&p and the ePocketbook is £20.50 plus VAT.